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USD/CAD may have enough fuel for a new high

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年11月21日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3375, 予想日: 1日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Confluence #Range #Uptrend #Momentum #Pullback #Strong Demand #Second Wave
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend.
Weekly chart
During the pullback in late April and early May, lower tails …
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年11月26日

UPDATE 3: Loonie surged through 1.34 on Monday and traded up to 1.3435. High for the year, set in late September at 1.3457, held. The oil rebounded on Friday and has not posted a losing day since. If the commodity stays supported, the pair is unlikely to break to new highs. In that case, a retest of 50 and 100 DMA (1.3150 - 1.3200) seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, 1.34 level will need to be convincingly broken to make a push through the cycle-high feasible.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月27日

UPDATE 4: Canadian dollar lost about a quarter of a cent against the U.S. dollar and closed in the middle of the range. The pair's range was somewhat larger this week than in the previous one but overall price action was pretty much the same. Needless to say, the pair tracked oil prices which rose in the first three days of the week only to then give back most of the gains in the last two days.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月29日

UPDATE 5: Week ahead is big for Canadian currency too. GDP release will be followed by BOC meeting and labour market report. On top of that, U.S. will publish ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Attempt to break to new eleven-year highs early in the past week failed and the pair pulled back but based ahead of 1.3275. Higher lows during the best part of the month highlight the bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月07日

UPDATE 6: Loonie finally broke through strong resistance band between 1.3450 and 1.3500, which includes September high (~1.3460), 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (~1.3470) and the big figure. The breakout accompanied the sell-off in oil, which has put the commodity to new six-year lows. 1.3530 and 1.3680 are the two minor chart levels from June 2004 before 1.3820 (June 2004 high) and 1.4000 (May 2004 high). Depending on action in oil, 1.3375 - 1.3450 seems like a good support zone.

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al_dcdemo 2015年12月17日

UPDATE 7: After months of preparations, FOMC finally decided to hike federal funds rate. The rate was at the record low of 0 - 0.25% for the past seven years (since December 2008). Last time that the rate was hiked was nearly ten years ago (in June 2006). New band for the rate is 0.25% - 0.50%. A couple of hours before the decision, much weaker than expected crude oil inventories report sent the Loonie to new eleven-year high (~1.3850), above the June 2004 high (~1.3820). The decision led to several whipsaws but the pair ended right where it started. The pair remains supported ahead of 1.3775.

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USD/CAD pullback to continue

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.2925, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Reversal #Confluence #Uptrend #200 Day Sma #Strong Demand #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend.
Weekly chart
During the pullback in late April and early May, lower tails o…
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al_dcdemo 2015年11月22日

UPDATE 4: Canadian dollar was among those major currencies that lost against the U.S. dollar in the past week. It lost half a cent while the weekly range was about a cent and a quarter wide. Needless to say, price action in the pair was mostly range bound. Volatility in the pair is contracting what may also be a sign that we are nearing usually less active December.

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al_dcdemo 2015年11月23日

UPDATE 5: There's nothing particularly of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Canada. U.S., however, will report several market moving data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair seems to be slowing while moving up towards cycle-high set in September. Although that may warn of a near term correction, quick fake break above the high is not excluded.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年11月26日

UPDATE 6: Loonie surged through 1.34 on Monday and traded up to 1.3435. High for the year, set in late September at 1.3457, held. The oil rebounded on Friday and has not posted a losing day since. If the commodity stays supported, the pair is unlikely to break to new highs. In that case, a retest of 50 and 100 DMA (1.3150 - 1.3200) seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, 1.34 level will need to be convincingly broken to make a push through the cycle-high feasible.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年11月27日

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar lost about a quarter of a cent against the U.S. dollar and closed in the middle of the range. The pair's range was somewhat larger this week than in the previous one but overall price action was pretty much the same. Needless to say, the pair tracked oil prices which rose in the first three days of the week only to then give back most of the gains in the last two days.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年11月29日

UPDATE 8: Week ahead is big for Canadian currency too. GDP release will be followed by BOC meeting and labour market report. On top of that, U.S. will publish ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Attempt to break to new eleven-year highs early in the past week failed and the pair pulled back but based ahead of 1.3275. Higher lows during the best part of the month highlight the bullish bias.

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USD/CAD to climb some more

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年09月26日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3425, 予想日: 2日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Strong Demand #Eleven Year Highs #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed its uptrend. It is currently trading at eleven-year highs.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 range…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年09月27日

UPDATE 1: Apart from GDP, there's little coming out from Canada in the week ahead. Events from the US will again be in focus: Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. There's resistance zone between July 2004 high (1.3385) and 1.35 which includes 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (1.3470). 50 DMA has held the pair since June and is the first stronger level on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 2015年09月29日

UPDATE 2: Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either. First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365. There's quite a few resistance levels stacked up ahead of the big 61.8% retracement.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月02日

UPDATE 3: This is shaping to be the best week for the Canadian dollar since June. After posting new eleven-year high on Tuesday, the pair turned sharply lower on Wednesday. Follow through selling on Thursday was cemented on Friday, after the release of US NFP report for September which was a big disappointment. The pair's shorter-term correlation with oil faded a bit but it's the longer-term one that really counts.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2015年10月09日

UPDATE 4: Commodities rallied this week with the oil (WTI) gaining about $4, which is even more significant (8%) in percentage terms. Loonie has convincingly broken below three big support levels: 50 DMA (currently ~1.32), 2008 high (1.3064) and 1.30 big figure level. 100 DMA is the next one ahead of Q1 highs between 1.2800 and 1.2835. Momentum is strong and may easily carry it another couple of cents lower.

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