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Singapore Dollar Back to Long-Term Fair Value

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4037, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Box #Congestion #Us Elections #Trump Bump
After some volatility, especially right after last year's election of Donald Trump, the USD/SGD seems to be coming back to its long-term fair value. On our first chart below we can see that the pair is now trading near the 1.4000 round figure.
This is the same price as back in August of 2015. So 18 months later and the pair hasn't made any gains. We can safely say that the bullish trend is in remission.
On our final chart below we see that even on the lower time-frames the USD/SGD remains undeci…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月27日

UPDATE 1: The Singapore Dollar is trading at 1.3937 right now, exactly 100 pips away from my forecasted price. The picture on the daily charts shows a range-bound March for this currency pair.

We opened the month at 1.4026, the high (so far) stands at 1.4218 while the low was set at 1.3906. We're now entering a cluster of previous levels that may act to slow down the losses and hopefully cause a spurt up in the USD/SGD.

These levels include 1.3962, last October's swing high, followed by the 1.3840 swing high (resistance turns to support) and the 1.3725 swing low set back in 2015.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月29日

UPDATE 2: This for update numero dos! The USD/SGD continues to trade range-bound. We are now quoted at 1.3944, only 7 pips above the price noted in my previous update.

We had some volatility during the last two days for sure, as a high of 1.3985 was hit as well as a low of 1.3914 but ultimately the pair settled back down.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 3: Some position improvement today. The pair jumped to 1.3989 right now, bringing me somewhat closer to my target.

The USD/SGD is on an upswing the past few days. But overall the mean-reverting nature of this pair continues unabated.

The pair opened March at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. I'm sure you can notice the directionless zig-zag pattern here.

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 4: Mean reversion is still the name of the game in the USD/SGD. This can be clearly seen in the 4 hour chart above that shows the price action during March.

The pair opened the month at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. We closed on Friday at 1.3971.

This is only 66 pips away from my forecasted price. With a bit of luck and range-bound markets I could get a place in the top 10!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 5: Not very exciting start of the week for the USD/SGD. First we opened at 1.3973, moved up to 1.3982, only to fall back down to 1.3965.

We are currently quoted at 1.3971, only 2 pips below the weekly open. Nothing decisive as of yet this Sunday, we'll have to wait and see what the trading on Monday brings.

While the current price is fairly close to my forecast (<0.50%) this may not be enough for a good prize this month. I will need the USD/SGD to inch higher a bit tomorrow so wish me luck!

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Singapore Dollar Resumes Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年12月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.44744, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Range Bound #Elections #Mean Reversion #Congestion #Trump Rally
The Singapore Dollar has resumed range-bound trading. On the first chart below the part in the rectangle shows the total monthly range during December. Notice how small that is compared to the previous few months. The open to close range shows an even clearer picture. Here the USD/SGD is at 151 pips during December, compared to 320 pips during November.
The uptrend in seems to be slowly losing steam.In fact during the last half of December not only has the rally slowed down, it has stopped altog…
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Singapore Dollar Will Return to Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4345, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar #Us Dolar #Congestion
I expect to see the Singapore Dollar to return to range-bound trading and here's why. Despite the volatility during the past few weeks, this pair is still well inside the range seen since 2015, as can be seen on the chart below. We are now nearing the crucial resistance level at 1.4441. I don't think the pair will continue higher.
Look at the 8,3,3 Stochastic. It's flashing a value of over 80, signalling overbought market territory. The same can be seen on our next pic below, on the 4 Hour chart…
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fxsurprise8 2016年12月28日

My forecast is not doing so far with today's gains in the US Dollar. The USD/SGD is now trading at 1.4502, clearly above the crucial resistance at 1.4441.

Interesting that during most of the month the USD/SGD was trading range-bound, which can be seen by the small gains made compared to November.

Unfortunately for me, the pair seems to have stabilized in this congestion right above my forecasted price. Still, with the price just over 150 pips and 1 percent away from my forecast, all is not lost. I just need 1-2 days of weakness in the USD to 'turn a profit' here.

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Range-bound Movement for Singapore Dollar to Continue

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3915, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
I'm expecting the range-bound movement in the Singapore Dollar to continue. Reason number one if the chart below. Here we see that we're trading little changed since the middle of 2015. We're now quoted at 1.3914, only 41 pips away from the mid-point mark between the high and low during the past 2 years.
If that point didn't underscore how constrained the USD/SGD has been, then maybe a lower timeframe chart will. On the 4 Hour chart below we can see the pair stalling after large gains made durin…
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Singapore Dollar to Stay Put

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3621, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Doji #Range Box
I'm expecting the Singapore Dollar to stay put in October and here's why. First the pair made a 'near doji' candle in September. I say near because the open was at 1.3622 while the close was at 1.3619, not EXACTLY the same as required by the theory. But for a monthly chart, this is close enough.
The doji signals indecision in the market. Neither the bulls nor the bears could make any headway this month so we ended up right where we opened. Furthermore on our next chart below we can see that sinc…
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Some Calm for the Singapore Dollar?

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3776, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #USD/SGD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #No Trends
The Singapore Dollar had a volatile year. First the bears took prices down from a high of 1.4440 in January to a low of 1.3349 in April. This month we're seeing a bit of a US Dollar resurgence with prices closing 335 pips higher in May. But as you can see on the chart below, the last two weekly candles were small, indicating slowing down of the price action.
Looking at things on a more long-term basis, the USD/SGD is now trading near the same levels as back in March of 2015. So all that volatili…
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Calmer Days for the Singapore Dollar

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3478, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar
It's been an unusually wild month for the USD/SGD. The US dollar losses pushed the from 1.4058 to 1.3477. On the chart below we can see this steady decline we've been having this month.
But let's zoom out a bit. On the weekly chart below we can see that the latest decline has only partially erased the Dollar gains. In fact if we draw a Fibonacci retracement from the last major swing low to the last major swing high, we get a 50% value around 1.3401. It's not a coincidence that today the pair bou…
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s_amira avatar
s_amira 2016年04月28日

I wish you good luck in all you forecasts!

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hrustiashka 2016年04月28日

Good luck!

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 2016年04月29日

very good article!

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fxsurprise8 2016年04月29日

Not a good day for my forecast as the USD/SGD is now testing yesterday's lows. We're trading at 1.3418, exactly 60 pips away from the target.

Earlier in the session we tested 1.3450 but the bears managed to win that battle. My forecast has been spot on so far, that 1.3401 Feb level is capping the losses in the pair.

But as always with these contests, you need a bit of luck to come out on top. And as mentioned in my original post, we have two conflicting trends here battling it out, longterm long and short-term shorts.

Thus it's not a surprise to see a lot of volatility intra-day.

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fxsurprise8 2016年05月01日

A late day rally in this pair helped to take prices a bit higher to 1.3440. Then I took a ''weekend hit'' as low liquidity spiked the spreads and pushed the bid downward to 1.3434.

This is around 0.3% away from my forecasted price. Not great but could potentially land me in the top five.

Overall the prediction was solid and the 50% Fib proved a strong area of support despite some selling pressure. After a volatile month like March, some consolidation was to be expected so it's not a surprise to see that prices closed barely changed in April.

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Singapore Dollar to Stay Put

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4010, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Trading
The rally in the USD/SGD seems to be finally over. In October the pair closed lower by a large 229 pips to 1.4010. As we can see on the picture below, the USD/SGD rolled over and the short-term trend is now down. But it's also visible that prices haven't made any headway in the past two weeks. In fact the Dollar seems to be gaining back some of that lost ground.
Why is this happening? Let's remind our readers of the long-term trend. On the weekly chart below we can see the large gains in this pa…
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The Back of USD/SGD Rally Likely Broken

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.422, 予想日: 2日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Rally #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Trendline Break
The U.S. Dollar gained over 7 percent against its Singapore counterpart since May of this year. The rally has taken a surprisingly clear upward trend. But as can be seen on the chart below, this trend has been broken by a trendline break in the middle of September.
While we have since climbed back above the line, the pair failed to make headway. The second top at 1.4333 is close the first at 1.4296. While this isn't a double top formation, the strong sell-off at the new highs indicates that the …
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Singapore Dollar to Continue Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年08月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4089, 予想日: 1日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Trading #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is set to continue its range-bound trading pattern. For the past 4 weeks, this pair has moved in a tight range between 1.4160 and 1.3888. I suspect that this range will continue into September.
Reason number one is that the resistance near 1.41, which can be traced all the way back to 2011, has put a lid on prices. It has stopped the upward moving trend. This brings us to the second reason. Uptrends rarely switch into downtrends right away without some consolidation in betwe…
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