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Cable Seasonality Pattern Points Lower

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5086, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Psychological Number #Seasonality #Support/resistance
Cable is showing a strong seasonal pattern to go lower during the month of November. We can see that during the previous two months GBP/USD has been moving in the same line with the seasonal pattern and this may be a strong case to assume that it will continue to do so in the next month.Don't forget, never use this information alone but instead use the technical tools to confirm this ideas or not, so we're going to look at technicals as well.

Important levels to watch:
[l…
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Daytrader21 9 Nov.

Update 3: As expected the strong seasonality pattern that we saw in cable has played out quite well. Even thought after recent sell-off we have hit our target there is still scope to break below current support level which is the big psychological number 1.5000. A break below this level will bring us to 1.4880 from where we should expect a strong rally and correct the entire sell off.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 4: there is scope for more upside until 1.5320 where we have a big pivot level from where we should expect to see a reversal. To the downside the most notable support area is around 1.5200 and only a daily close below this level should signal more downside.

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 5: Cable has been following his seasonal pattern very well over the past month and we should expect more downside to come.First level of resistance is at 1.5330 while support stands at last week low 1.5150

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 6: As expected we have challenged again the big psychological figure 1.5000 but we haven't managed to get a weekly close below it. This week we should expect to act as support level. For this coming week first level of resistance comes at 1.5110 only 24 pips above my initial forecast of just 1.5086. If the big figure holds there is a high probability that my level to be hit on the 1st of December

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Daytrader21 1 Dec.

Update 6 : This has proven to be a pretty good forecast with only 9 pips deviation from my initial forecast of 1.5086. As expected the fact that we couldn't close below the big psychological figure 1.5000 on a weekly basis has made this bounce possible. First we hit resistance at 1.5125 from where the sell off started and we close the 11:00-12:00 candle at 1.50772. This prediction was on target the whole day and definitely it could have been much better.

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GBP/CHF Range Boxing

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5098, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Snb #GBP/CHF #Support/resistance #Range Box
After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart we can see how by sim…
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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 1: The sell off from the 1.5400 high is a normal reaction to complete wave 4 of 5. Right now based on Elliott Wave we should expect further consolidation before more upside. Support level stands at 1.4600 previous week's low

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 2: I think that wave 4 is now under the last stage before to finish the sequence. The low of 1.4595 represents wave A of wave 4 and we can expect in the short-term another break lower below 1.48800 to complete wave B and than another push higher.

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Daytrader21 28 Sep.

Update 3: We're still trapped within a narrow range between 1.4750 and with resistance at the 1.5110 level which is also the top of the current range box. Other major level we have to keep in mind is the big psychological number 1.5000 which can give us further insights into where to price will go

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Daytrader21 28 Sep.

Update 4: The path for the coming week is still to remain in this range consolidation zone but since we have already tested the bottom of the range it make sense to expect an upside reaction and a retest of the top of the range. In order for more upside we need a break of the big round number 1.5000.

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EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.7093, Date: 3 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #EUR/GBP #Elliott Wave #Support/resistance
Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 5: Unfortunately we broke below the big round number 0.7000 and made a new swing low. Only a daily close above the big figure can give more upside prices. In many cases after a new swing low/high is made often the market enter inside a range zone and this can be the case here as well. We need 0.6900 to hold as support in order for that to happen.

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 6: As expected  0.6900 held as support and we're now back above the big figure 0.7000 suggesting that the sell of was a false one. We can still expect another retest of the big figure and old resistance to turn into new support.

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 7: Even though Friday we managed to hit my target we had a strong sell of by the close but since we're still above our key support level and big round number 0.7000 which is also a psychological number I'm expecting a rally and see a retest of Friday's high which is near my target at 0.7093.

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WallStreet6 1 Aug.

Another great implementation of Elliot's waves and really close to target, just 60 pips away, good luck!

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Mariia 2 Aug.

very well done

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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 98.3000, Date: 3 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Seasonality #Support/resistance #Range Box
AUDJPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there …
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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 1: We're still moving inside the range box from Figure 1. Right now support stands at big figure 95.00.  We should continue moving inside this range zone for the most part in the coming weeks because of the summer trading conditions. Resistance stands at 97.00.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 2: The market it still reluctant to go higher and right now the 94.50 support level is retested. The fact that we couldn't break it and have a weekly close below it is a sign that we should see higher price into next week. Resistance stands at 96.30.

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CAD/JPY Range Box Effect.

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Apr. as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 93.2000, Date: 1 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/JPY #Support/resistance #Cadjpy #Elliottwave #Range Box
CAD/JPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Daytrader21 18 Apr.

Update 1: Unfortunately it seems we broke above the high of wave IV, the 96.80 level, however the move lacks momentum as it's fading away. If we mange to get a new close inside the range it may prove us it is a "v" shape top.

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Daytrader21 2 May

Update 2: Right now we're still above our resistance zone of 97.00, however the 99.00 level is a big pivot level which has acted as strong resistance, we need price to stay below that level and a break and close below 97.00 will put the preassure on this pair again

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Aussie - Bearish Trend Still in Play

Daytrader21 Posted 19 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8560, Date: 3 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Bearish #Elliott Wave #Support/resistance
Aussie have been trading to the downside in a strong fashion way since beginning of the year. Although we have complete a 5 wave cycle since we break to the downside (figure 1, red wave notes) this is just the first wave of higher degree based on Elliott Wave theory. The reason why we may assume this is the first wave of higher degree is because of the structure of the recent up move, which is an abc formation, corrective in his nature. This abc formation should end the next wave of higher degre…
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Daytrader21 29 Dec.

Update 1: The market has kept going lower in tight range as expected but due to the holiday season liquidity got thin. We should expect market to push lower in tight range, next big support level lays around 0.8750. we must break and close below that level in order for the downside momentum to stay in place

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Daytrader21 3 Jan.

Update 2: It seems the market is reacting to previous swing low but as long as we stay below the psychological 0.9000 level the bearish trend should stay in place. it's normal to have some kind of correction at this stage as the market looks oversold but the bigger trend is still to the downside. Expecting the market to find resistance at 0.9000 and than start a new 5 wave sequence and break below 0.8800 level.

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Daytrader21 26 Jan.

Update 3: The trend has started resuming after we broke last swing low 0.8840 as predicted a now that we have close below it the Wave III is in full development. in this stage the market should start more aggressively moving to the downside. 0.8750 has now become resistance and should cap any upside movement

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