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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.3111, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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EUR/PLN Remains in Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.2454, Date: 2 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Multi Year
The near six years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in force. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2453. This is around 4 percent, a very small amount for several years of trading.
The vast majority of the past 6 years the pair has spent between 3.06 and 4.5800. Like we said above, it's currently trading at 4.2453, in the middle of the range still.
On our final chart above we are seeing that the…
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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mar comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5567, Date: 1 de mai, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.3054, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 mar

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

fxsurprise8 Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5588, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Single Currency
The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 29 mar

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

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fxsurprise8 30 mar

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

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fxsurprise8 31 mar

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

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fxsurprise8 1 avr

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

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fxsurprise8 2 avr

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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Swedish Krona Mean Reverts Against Euro

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5765, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #V Shaped Reversal
The Swedish Krona mean-reverted against the Euro yet again. This wont come as a surprise to the readers of my TA posts, because I've written about the range-bound nature of this pair for the past few months. In the process of reversing the pair fell back below the 9.73 handle, a key resistance level that kept a lid on prices.
On our next chart we can see just how important this level has been. It remained unbroken for the past few years, holding the EUR/SEK in a tight range. Things are not looki…
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EUR/GBP Bounces at Support

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.85216, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels #Brexit
The EUR/GBP finally ended its post-Brexit slump by bouncing at the support area noted on the chart below. Price bottomed out at 0.8304 during December, just below the 0.8327 support and above the 0.8248 support level. With the downtrend over, I'm not willing to bet on major increases in this pair yet.
The reason why can be seen on the picture below. During December we moved between a high of 0.8304 and a high of 0.8666. This is a fairly small amount for a major currency. But what really paints t…
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fxsurprise8 31 jan

The EUR/GBP opened the month at 0.8510 and is now quoted at 0.8579, not even 70 pips higher. The range-bound behavior this continues for a second month.

As we said in our original post, during December the pair had an open to close range that was at only 54 pips.

The current price is only 60 odd pips away from my target, so hopefully we'll get a small drift lower into month end.

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Nothing New for the Polish Zloty

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.4033, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
Some things never change and this seems to be the case for the EUR/PLN currency pair. First let's again take a look at the monthly chart. I've shared this chart in previous TAs to show just how range-bound this pair has been in the past few years. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4024. That's just above 1 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the second picture we see that trend…
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EUR/GBP Enters a Cluster of Levels

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8468, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Europe #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels
The Pound is not having a good year. It's down against almost all majors and that includes the Euro as well. This pair initially rallied to a high of 0.9326 this year, over 2,000 pips above he lows hit in November of last year. But as we can see on the first chart below, that may be changing.
We're now quoted at 0.8468, almost 900 pips below the highs. Notice how the EUR/GBP is now entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support. On the downside we have 0.8248 and 0.8335. On the upside…
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fxsurprise8 28 déc

I'm happy to report that the forecast is going according to plan! We are currently quoted at 0.8519, after having traded as high as 0.8571 and as low as 0.8300.

Both the current price and the monthly range are well within the bounds I outlined in my original forecast, support at 0.8248 and 0.8335, resistance at 0.8729 and 0.9326, among many other levels.

The pair has so far acted as i should, bouncing between these support/resistance levels. With the end of year coming up, which is usually a slow time for currencies, I don't expect major changes in market sentiment.

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fxsurprise8 31 déc

No major changes to report in this pair, currently we're trading at 0.8523 and that's where we closed 2016. We have a little bit more time to the January 2nd cut off point, so wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2 jan

According to the charts, the EUR/GBP was quoted at 0.85174 on January 2nd at 12:00. This is 49.6 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8468.

In percentage terms this is 0.58 percent price difference. This is not enough for the first place but hopefully I will land a position near the top.

I'm working on updating my charts from the original forecast. I will post them once I finish my work, later today.

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fxsurprise8 2 jan

The picture above is an updated chart of my original forecast. The rectangle shows the price action for EUR/GBP during December.

Here's the scenario I forecasted. As the pair was  entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support, I expected to see the pair bogged down inside these levels,producing a trading range during December.

As you can see on the pic, that's exactly what happened. We first bounced at 0.8304, between the support levels at 0.8248 and 0.8335.

The pair then rallied to near the resistance at 0.8729 but was rejected and proceeded to fall back down toward my target.

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More of the Same for EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.4547, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Euro #Support #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a large range. As you can see on the monthly chart below, since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.4515, almost no change in prices for several years of trading.
The picture doesn't improve if we go down time-frames either. Since December of last year we've been trading in a tight range that fits inside the larger congestion area noted above. On our second chart b…
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fxsurprise8 28 déc

So far one part of my forecast above is coming true, while the other is giving me mixed results. According to the second chart above, we said that on the daily chart every rally has been retraced.

This is what has happened in December, with the EUR/PLN dropping from the 4.5057 high to a low of 4.3824 yesterday.

We are currently quoted at 4.4035, around 1.1 percent below my targeted price. The first part of my forecast remains unfulfilled, so far. I will need more mean reversion, this time to the upside to bring me close to my 4.4547 forecast.

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