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AUD/NZD Multi-Decade Support Level (part 5)

AUD/NZD is approaching a multi-decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the monthly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement. But since we hit the 1.0500 level market has started to bottom and move inside some trading boxes, on top of each other. However…
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Update 1: Unfortunately we broke to new lows and it may be the case that we're going to have an overextended wave 5. If next week we manage to recover the losses from previous week we're back in cards to hit out target. However we need a close above the 1.0400 level.

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Update 2: Since we haven't managed to close above 1.0400 and posted another bearish weekly bar, I suspect this pair is headed much more lower.

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Update 3: As expected we have gone lower and even tested the parity level from where we posted a low, which however must be confirmed by another bullish weekly candle

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Good Job!

WallStreet6 avatar

really good analysis!

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NZD/CAD Range Trade Boxes

NZD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Update 3: The market has established another range box between 0.9600 resistance zone and 0.9350 support zone with 0.9550 middle of the box. For the next few weeks we should see the market trading between this two extreme points

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Update 4: We retested the 0.9350 support zone and the bottom of our range box.Next week we need a break and a close above the big round number 0.9500 for further upside. We're still in a range and us such we should expect the market to bounce between this levels

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Angelwales 18 Apr.

I like the going up ....  nice

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Metal_Mind 26 Apr.

rise and shine . Seem to be going in the right direction

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Mani 26 Apr.

nice

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Quick Review GBP/JPY Trade

In today's blog post I would like to give a quick review of one of my latest trades which was short GBP/JPY(see Figure 1). The whole premise behind this trade was a broken support which was pointing to further downside movement. Not to mention that once cable has broke the key support level of 1.5000 which is a very big round number, would send a strong signal across the board that GBP is very weak. This was a very quick trade as weekend was approaching I was not having enough margin left to hol…
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EUR/GBP Breakout Mode

EUR/GBP has started shifted to the downside once we broke the major support level of 0.7700(see Figure 1). This is a major support level since it was support level in 2008 and than in 2010, but once we managed to break and close below it the momentum started accelerating and this is a strong sign that for now we're going to move in the direction of line of least resistance. Next major level comes at 0.7100 which was a strong resistance level from 2003 to 2008 when we finally broke to the upside.…
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Update 4: The momentum has carried this pair below our support zone at 0.7100 and we retested a much bigger level like the 0.7000 round number. As expected we found some support here and the market has put a temporarry bottom in place. For next week 0.7000 remains a key level and we need this one to hold in order to get a second bounce and move back towards 0.7200

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Update 5: As expected and as per my previous update the 0.7000 big round number was key and we mange to put in place a temporary bottom. Now we're back above the 0.7200 level as per my previous update. Next week we should see further consolidation

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Update 6: This week we manage to recover back towards our target and we have an overshoot move which found resistance all the way up to around 0.7400 level. This level should provide the next week good resistance in fact I don't even think we're going to retest that level as this corrective move is over. Expect more downside move next week towards 0.7200 level

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Update 7: The 0.7350 level has provided a goo resistance level this week and that momentum has shifted to the downside as per my expectations. Right now we have hit our target at 0.7230, however there are few more our to go until the tomorrow's deadline. See figure for the short term plan.

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Last update: This is unbelievable, as it has been happening EVERY time during the last months, few hours ahead of the deadline my prediction had only 1-10 pips deviation and it was the same during previous months as well, just that due to month end flow redistribution we have this spikes in price which is distorting the price action. I think Dukascopy should reconsider the deadline and to consider as the deadline last day of the month, NY close price when the session ends, otherwise all the lucky hitter will take the 1st place.

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GBP/CHF Double Bottom

After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes.
Figure 1. GBP/CHF Weekly chart.

Based on the Monthly chart we can spot a big double bottom that is ta…
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Update 2: As expected the momentum continue to push higher and we're near our target. From here on I'm expecting a retracement based on Figure 1 we should see the market ranging between a wide range 1.4750 resistance zone and 1.4000 big round number and support zone

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Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above the key level 1.4750 but we still have to be patience and wait and see if there is any follow through to confirm this breakout.

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Update 4: This pair has broken outside my projection and we the momentum pushed this pair all the way up past the big round number 1.5000 and we had a strong rejection from there making a "v" shape top for now which should keep this pair under pressure in the coming weeks. Next week support stands at 1.4700 level.

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Update 5: As per my previous update I was right we indeed established a "v" shape top. Now we're big round number 1.4500 which should provide some support level for the time being. Next week we should see momentum start picking up.

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Update 6: After 2 weeks sell of this pair has finally found a bottom and we should expect previous week low to hold. So the 1.4200 level should act as support. If we manage to break above 1.4500 round number in the first days of the week there is a chance we'll hit our target

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USD/JPY Trade Explanation

In this blog post I want to share the reason behind my short USD/JPY setup, on which I was stopped out at a small loss -7 pips, which in my book is still a BE trade. The reason why I was short was because we open the market with a gap below the 117.20 support level, and even though later we manage to come back above that support there was not much of a follow through.
Figure 1. USD/JPY 1h Chart.

The 117.20 support level have been tested for so many times that it was obvious that at one point w…
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AUD/CAD Retesting Big Resistance

AUD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can tell that over the year this range boxes have narrowed and the market it's moving clearly between support and resistance.
Right now the market is at an very important inflection point which is the 0.9800 level, which is a pivot point. this level has provided in the past good opportunities and it has acted both as support…
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Update 1. Last week upside spike was a "throw over" pattern which based on Elliott Wave it signaling a reversal in price. Based on our charts the spike towards big round number 1.000 was a throw over, a false breakout above down channel. It's a also a "V" shape top and if we take in consideration we're in a downtrend we should expect the trend to resume

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Update 2: As per my previous update price has confirmed that we had a false breakout as we're now back within the channel range. Also it appears that based on Elliott Wave we're forming a flat formation in which case we should expect to see a retest of previous low at 0.9400 whihc is also around my forecast level.

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NZD/CAD Downward Channel

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the weekly cha…
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Update 1: As expected last week the momentum was pressing to the downside but there is a little more to go before we hit our first support zone at 0.8700 level before to see any reaction to the upside. To the upside major resistance level is at 0.8900 ahead of the big round number 0.9000.

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Update 2: As long as we stay below 0.9000 big round number the bearish trend remains intact. Currently the sentiment is neutral at this level as both the bears and bull try to regain control of this market. We need a break and a close below that level before the market to resume downward

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NZD/CHF Trading Box Effect

Nothing much has happened with NZD/CHF in last few years as we are moving in an never ending ranging zones. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) you can notice this trading range boxes on top of each other which are characteristic in this range environment and which clears further current price structure. Usually the top/bottom of previous range box provides support or resistance for the next trading box as old resistance has become new support and vice versa. But there are times when price do…
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Update 1:  We're still in the consolidation phase and we should expect during this time of the year with low level of liquidity the market to move in narrow ranges. Next support level remains at 0.7400 before any reaction

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Update 2: We're still trading within this big range boxes and we're going to continue to do so especially during this period of the year when liquidity is very low and the market stays within some even more narrow ranges.

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Update 3: The fact that we haven't succeeded to break above previous swing high 0.7685 suggest that we are headed back within the range box and the only way we could hit our target on time is for the market to close below 0.7585 during the Monday session this way the momentum can gain speed to the downside.

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NZD/CAD Reversal Pattern

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the w…
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Update 5: As expected this past week we had another sell off an retest the 0.8700 support level without the market to be able to close below it. Right now we're only 21 pips away from our target and based on intraday charts in the first few hours of Monday we should expect the market to trade between 0.8730-8770 so there is a high chance to hit our target or at least move even closer to it.

bharatholsa avatar

congrats - well done ))

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 5 Nov.

Nicely Done!

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Congrats, good job

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Thanks guys:)

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