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GBP/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart we can see how by simple using those boxes…
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Update 4: As expected once we broke previous swing high the momentum has pushed up this pair right into my target and last week high was exactly my forecast target of 1.5026. Next week will be key as we can see another retest of 1.4900 where buyers should show up and see another retest of 1.5026.

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Update 5: Since we broke above the 1.4800 which was the top of the previous range box, we should expect the next consolidation range to take place between 1.4800 support level and 1.5200 previous swing high level. 

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Update 6: Last Friday rally from below the brig round number 1.5000 has left behind thin liquidity bars which is a sign that we're going to see a fill of that gap and see a retest of the big round number and ultimately getting closer to our target at 1.5026. Monday on london session I see the scenario in the figure attached

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Here you have about 70 pips to go- could make it closer on Monday. Once again great job with the analysis!

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Mariia 2 Aug.

great analysis

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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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Update 1: It seems that the market is having another go towards the major support level of 0.8800 which is also the bottom of current range box. As long as this level holds my forecast is still valid 

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Update 2: Due to recent RBNZ decision to cut rates the technical landscape has changed and right now with a new swing low being put in place , below 8.8600 the flow has been shifted to the downside. In order for this to regain momentum we need a close above 0.8750

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NZD/USD COT Report

NZD/USD has broken key support level at 0.7200 which held the price since beginning of the year and it seems now that the bearish trend is ready to resume. First we also need a retest of the broken support which now is expected to act as resistance. We also have confluence if we draw and connect all the high from 0.7750 high, we have a nice trend line which should act as resistance.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Update 1: The market has not managed to break below key support level and big round number 0.7000 but we neither where able to retest the previous broken support level at 0.7250 which as based on my prediction should happen before the downtrend resume

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Update 2: This week the COT has continue to widen again and although technically we broke below key support level and round number 0.7000 a reversal is still in place. Next key support level remains at 0.6900 which is a multi year pivot level.

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Update 3: Right now the market is trading near an very big inflection zone between 0.6900-0.6885 which should produce a bounce as the COT extreme is still widening suggesting a reversal may come soon. However we still need a break above the big figure 0.7000 in order to see more upside momentum

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CHFJPY Range Box Effect

CHF/JPY has been moving slowly from one range box to another one and right now we're just breaking out of the current range box with the range between 128.00 support level and 131.20 resistance zone(see Figure 1). Since we broke and manage to get a weekly close above this resistance level we may assume that we're heading higher where another range box should be established.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Update 1:Right now we're in the process of establishing the next range box as per Figure 1. WE had a nice retest of 132.00 support level and right now the market is heading back for a retest of resistance level which stands at 135.00 big round number

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Update 2: Like all the other crosses we have been moving inside a very narrow range between 131.50 support level and 134.50 resistance level. Next week we should expect the market move inside this range as the summer range trading condition persist.

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Update 3: The market is bouncing from current support level at 132.00 (see figure 1). Next week we should expect the market to retest at least the middle of the range which stands at 1.33.50 which is also near our target. The 132.00 should provide further support.

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Update 4: Even thought we're 100 pips away from my target current volatility may be supportive for the upside momentum to continue pushing higher. Right now we have been filling the weekly gap and if tomorrow we can get above 132.75 than we should see more upside prices

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EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Based on the Elliott Wave analysis EUR/JPY has completed a five wave sequence from the 2012 bottom and right now we're in a corrective process which should keep this pair in a wide range. For the time being the 136.00 level and pivot point should act as support and because we're entering the summer time period where liquidity is generally low and usually the market is moving in a tight range we should expect the market stay inside the 136.00-130.00 range.
Major Levels to
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Update 1: The level 136.50 is still holding the market for going up as expected and next week we should see a pull-back inside the range. Support stands at 134.00 current bottom of range box. The market is still in consolidation and us such look for more range bound.

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Update 2: The market is moving as per my plan and we're still trading inside the range box. Key level to keep in mind for next week are 133.00 bottom of current range and also support level and the middle of the range which comes at around 135.50 which is also a pivot point.

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Update 3: As expected from my last week update the 133.00 level has acted as support and we had a strong rally and we're heading for a retest of current box top which comes at around 137.00 which should act as resistance and send price lower again. First level of support for next week comes at the big figure 135.00

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Update 4: Unfortunately we broke higher and right now the next range box is about to be established above 136.50 level. We have to wait and see if current high at 141.00 will hold or not in order to validate my forecast or not

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