Gemeinschaft
Blog
fxsurprise8's Blog

fxsurprise8's Blog

Avatar

USD/CHF Still Range-Bound

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.974, Date: 2 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Swissy #Range Bound
The USD/CHF has stayed remarkably stable for the past few months. Ever since March, prices have been oscillating above and below the current 0.9700 level. We've traded as high as 0.9902 and as low as 0.9257 but ultimately the pair keeps coming back to what appears to be its fair value.
I expect more of the same. In August the USD/CHF closed only 9 pips lower, while in September we saw a 90 pips gain. But in percentage terms, this is below 1%, barely noticeable for a monthly bar. Even on a lower …
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Swissy Momentum Higher to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9711, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Rally #Switzerland #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Higher #Measured Move
The momentum higher in the Swissy is set to continue. The pair has rallied over 400 pips from a low of 0.9257 just eight days ago. A body in motion tends to stay in motion.
CHART 1
But I don't think we'll see large gains in the USD/CHF. For one, we are already up by 400 pips from the lows, this is a major move for this pair. And two, we are getting close to some previous resistance levels at 0.9726 and 0.9741. These resistance levels should put a lid on prices, at least temporarily. Because of t…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

9 Kommentar
ehr Kommentare anzeigen
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

Great analysis, impressive accuracy, well done!

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 30 Sep.

Oh good post!! well done

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar
Vitalinka_Pavlenko 30 Sep.

Its good job) well done

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 1 Oct.

Prices have continued the move higher and the pair is currently trading at 0.9761. The general bout of risk aversion in the markets is not helping my position. But with the USD/CHF now approaching these important resistance levels again, hopefully the sellers will come back out in full force and knock down the pair a bit.

Polinaria avatar
Polinaria 4 Oct.

Great article!

oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

EUR/HKD Higher Inside the Wedge

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/HKD, Target: 8.5980, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #Federal Reserve #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Snb #Swiss Franc #EUR/HKD #Swissy
The EUR/HKD has been in a strong downtrend last year. On the chart below we can see the EUR/HKD getting sold heavily over 20 percent, from 10.80 to 8.12, as the ECB undertook a large QE program.
But this year things are starting to turn around. Since March 2015, there have been no new lows for the pair. On the contrary, a sequence of higher lows may indicate more gains for EUR/HKD. To be fair, we're also seeing a sequence or lower highs so this situation is not wildly bullish by any measure. Thi…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Swiss Franc Overbought

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9332, Date: 1 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Swiss Franc #Swissy
The Swiss Franc is overbought. The currency pair (USD/CHF) has been mirror imaging the Euro's gains during April, falling by 395 pips while the EUR/USD rallied by 500 points.
In my opinion, these gains are excessive. On the fundamental perspective, the Swiss authorites want to keep the value of the Franc down. While they have let the currency appreciate against the Euro after abandoning the 1.20 peg, they still actively intervene in the market. This is obvious when looking at a chart of the EUR/…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

1 Kommentar
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 29 May

As expected, the gains for the Swissy, and consequently losses for USD/CHF, didn't last. The month of May initially saw an extended move lower to 0.9071 but this was quickly countered by buyers. The resulting rally hit a high of 0.9542. From here we fell back down to close the week at 0.9400.

I will need this downmove to continue for about 70 pips to hit my target. The momentum of the past few days is on my side. Plus, I expect the Euro to break 1.10 and head higher on Monday. This may translate into more CHF gains and a further decline in the USD/CHF exchange rate.

oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Swissy to Break Parity

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0221, Date: 2 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Dollar #USD/CHF #Swiss Franc
The Swissy had a remarkable move up this year. The pair is currently up by 890 pips since January 1st and the momentum, as can clearly be seen on the 4 Hour chart below, is on the upside.
The trend will continue into the New Year (happy new one by the way). The parity level (1.000) will be important resistance for USD/CHF, but if we break it (and I suspect we will) the door to 1.02 will be open. I'm betting on another 300 pips gain in January to match December's run of 285 pips.
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

More Gains for the USD/CHF

fxsurprise8 Posted 29 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9689, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD/CHF #Swiss Franc
The USD/CHF has been in an uptrend since hitting a low of 0.8698 few months ago. But we are currently pushing up on the important resistance at 0.9750. This was a swing high back in July of 2013 and will likely place a lid on rising prices. Further up we have another important resistance at the 2013 high at 0.9838.
I expect that the uptrend will slowly push prices higher in December. I'm placing my ''bet'' on 0.9689, just below the 0.9700-0.9800 resistance area. While the USD/CHF will likely bre…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Small Gains for the USD/CHF

fxsurprise8 Posted 27 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9511, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Swissy
The Swissy had a remarkable September, rallying over 350 pips. But after spiking to a high of 0.9686 on October 6th, prices fell and we are currently trading almost 200 off the highs. The currency pair is now stuck in wedge. While this is usually a continuation pattern, I think in November we will see only limited gains. Since December is traditionally a slow month, the start of the New Year may bring a continuation of the rally in full force.
I am betting on small gains for the Swissy to 0.9511…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen
Avatar

Small gains for the Swissy

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9239, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Swiss Franc #Swissy
The USD/CHF has benefited from general US Dollar strength in the past few months. The US economy is improving and economists are expecting the Fed to soon end its Quantitative Easing program. The currency pair is trading at 0.9189, up 484 pips since May.
Going forward, the pair will continue the gains but I expect that the swing high at 0.9250, reached on November 7th 2013, may provide some resistance. In addition, the total lack of a major retracement for the Swissy means further gains in the p…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
Übersetzen in Englische Sprache Zeige Original

Da Sie nicht eingeloggt sind, kennen wir Ihre gesprochene Sprache nicht, nehmen jedoch an es ist Englische Sprache
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein oder wählen Sie eine andere zu übersetzende Sprache aus der Liste.

– oder –

Kommentar hinterlassen
oderum Kommentare zu hinterlassen