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CHFJPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 119.1000, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF/JPY #Psychological Number #Range Box
CHF/JPY has been moving slowly from one range box to another one and right now we're at the point of just breaking out of the current narrow range box that has been established between 123.40 top of the range and 121.20 bottom of the range. A break below this level should open up the range towards next big target of 120.00 which is a big psychological number and at the same time around this level we had our last swing low point back in March 2015.

Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 2: As expected we broke below the big psychological figure 120.00 which for the time being can act as resistance and more downside should be followed. Next level of support came at 118.00 from where we should expect a bounce

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 3: Even though we broke higher and we're back inside the range the price structure looks corrective and we should see a retest of the big psychological number 120.00. Resistance stands at 123.00 while the first level of support for this week stands at 121.80, we need a daily close below this level for further downside

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Daytrader21 20 Dec.

Update 4: We broke to the downside current support level at 122.50 and managed to close below it, which will warn us for more downside. There is not much support to the downside until we hit the big psychological number 120.00 and the bearish trend still looks intact.

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Daytrader21 27 Dec.

Update 5: As expected we continue to push lower and close below the 122.50 support level. Next support level is the big round number 120.00 which needs to be broken in order to see more downside pressure coming in the market. Now the first level of resistance has become the previous support level at 122.50

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Daytrader21 1 Jan.

Update 6: As expected we continued to break down however we weren't able to break below the key psychological number 120.00. We're still almost 100 pips away from my target and the fact the we didn't close below this figure we may take a pause or even get a bounce from here.

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AUD/CHF Inside DownChannel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7289, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Range Box #Downchannel
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1) which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 4rd wave but first we'll need to hit the upward limit of this channel at around the big round number 0.7300 where a bounce lower should occur.
[…
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Daytrader21 1 Jan.

Update 6:As expected the 0.7150 level has been providing us a good support in previous week and we indeed started to rally. Right now we closed the week at only 1 pips distance from my forecast target of 0.7289. The ideal scenario is for a retest of previous broken swing high at 0.7250 and than a rebound and a retest of my target at 0.7289.

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 1 Jan.

good analysis

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foreignexchange 1 Jan.

Great analysis, do you think that a retracement in the Oil forecast could facilitate with this pair some bullish speculation ?

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WallStreetBlog 1 Jan.

Very interesting!!!

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WallStreet6 2 Jan.

Great anaysis!

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Silver Poised for Another Major Low

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on XAG/USD, Target: 14.3200, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Bearish #Silver #Psychological Number #XAG/USD
Silver bearish trend that started in 2011 is still well mature and running without any clear sights that it may end any time soon and in this regard we should expect for the trend to remain in place and resume to the downside. This bearish cycle has lasted almost 4 years and based on my experience we need to have a final "flush" at the lows before the bottom may be considered in place in this regard I'm still expecting one final leg to the downside in order to consider completed this cycle.
M…
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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 1: Silver seems poised to make a false breakout in the short-term time frame below 13.90 and even lower but eventually a reaction higher should happen in the coming weeks. We're still trading within a very narrow range between 14.50 resistance and 14.00 support level.

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 2: We did broke below 13.90 but it was a false breakout and right now we're still back inside the range we need a break and a daily close on each side in order to have more confirmation on which side it want to go. I favor a break of current resistance at 14.40 and a retest of the big psychological number 15.00

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 3: We already hit our target but we had a strong sell of from there and now we made new lows below 13.90. We're still moving inside a tight consolidation and there is scope for more range activity around the 14.00 big round number since we're still during the holiday period in which we have a strong seasonal pattern.

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Daytrader21 20 Dec.

Update 4: Silver is still moving inside a range between 14.60 resistance level and 13.60 support level. Right now we can see another test of the upper limit of this current range. We have to keep in mind that during this time of the year the market will move less.

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Daytrader21 27 Dec.

Update 5: The momentum from these final two weeks of trading has pushed back up the price to my target and as per my expectation we should see Silver trading between 14.50 resistance levels and 14.20 support level. Current trading environment and taking in consideration the seasonal pattern we should see further ranging conditions

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EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.6878, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #EUR/GBP #Elliott Wave #Psychological Number
Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 1: We're close to break below the big psychological number 0.7000, once we get the breakout we have our confirmation that the bearish momentum is in charge and we should expect further lows. to the upside the first level of resistance stands at 0.7050.

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 1: We're still trading above the big psychological number 0.7000 which is acting as strong support however wave a of B looks complete and it may be the case we're developing a flat in wave B which means that we can break the lows from here without the need to retest  the 0.7250 level.

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USD/CAD Cycle has ended

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2589, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Usdcad #Psychological Number #Abc Correction
Based on the Elliott wave analysis the 5 wave cycle in USD/CAD has completed and we're in the process of correcting the entire cycle started from 2012 low. Wave V of the bigger cycle has been completed at around the round number 1.3400. Right now we're in the process of developing wave A of an ABC correction pattern that will take place over the next few months.
Major Levels to watch:

[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 1: Unfortunately this pair has retrace way too much from the 1.2800 levels and it may be the case we're running out of time to reach 1.2500 in which case we may assume my forecast is wrong.

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AUD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis.

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9336, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/CAD #Consolidation #Elliott Wave #Zig Zag Pattern
Based on the Elliott Wave analysis AUD/CAD is headed much more lower (see Figure 1). We're in a very complex corrective pattern which suggest lower prices in the weeks and months ahead.Right now we're forming a double zig-zag pattern of lesser degree which is based on the wave X connector of higher degree which should end near the 50 fib retracement at around the 0.8000 big round number.
Major Levels to watch:
…
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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 1: We're still below the big psychological number 0.9500 as we weren't able to have a weekly close above this level suggesting the bears may still be in control. For coming week that level should provide resistance and to the downside the first level of support comes at 0.9400 where price can see a pause before going further down

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Daytrader21 2 Nov.

Update 2: After another retest of the 0.9500 resistance level we finally got a strong reaction and sold off again retesting the 0.9300 support level. We can't rule out a retest of the 50% fib retracement from the 0.9580 highs before to continue lower again.

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Daytrader21 9 Nov.

Update 3: It seems that the market has established a new range zone. This range zone is much more narrowed between 0.9300 support level and 0.9445 resistance level. Until we can get a break and a daily close above either of this two levels we're stuck inside this range and there is no clear direction.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 4: We broke above the 0.9445 pivot point and resistance level but the big round number and psychological figure 0.9500 has been proving a much more better resistance level as we weren't able to post a weekly close above that level. For the coming week we should see 0.9500 act as resistance and we should see a retest of 0.9400 and lower.

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GBP/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.4771, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Snb #GBP/CHF #Psychological Number #Range Box
AfterSNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted, however, we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart, we can see how by s…
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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 1: Since the market wasn't able to close above the big psychological number 1.5000 there is reason to believe it will act as resistance and next week we can expect a pullback. First level of support comes at 1.4850 from where the market can bounce

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Daytrader21 9 Nov.

Update 2: It seems that wave B has extended more than I was expecting but we can call it completed at 1.5350. Right now wave C is developing and we should see a break below the big psychological figure 1.5000. The next big level of support comes at 1.4600 where current sell-off should stop and wave C can be called completed.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 3: If GBP/CHF doesn't start selling off right from the beginning of next week than I may be wrong on this trade. We need to break below 1.5150 in order to be able to see more downside and a possible reversal.

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Cable Seasonality Pattern Points Lower

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5086, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Psychological Number #Seasonality #Support/resistance
Cable is showing a strong seasonal pattern to go lower during the month of November. We can see that during the previous two months GBP/USD has been moving in the same line with the seasonal pattern and this may be a strong case to assume that it will continue to do so in the next month.Don't forget, never use this information alone but instead use the technical tools to confirm this ideas or not, so we're going to look at technicals as well.

Important levels to watch:
[l…
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Daytrader21 9 Nov.

Update 3: As expected the strong seasonality pattern that we saw in cable has played out quite well. Even thought after recent sell-off we have hit our target there is still scope to break below current support level which is the big psychological number 1.5000. A break below this level will bring us to 1.4880 from where we should expect a strong rally and correct the entire sell off.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 4: there is scope for more upside until 1.5320 where we have a big pivot level from where we should expect to see a reversal. To the downside the most notable support area is around 1.5200 and only a daily close below this level should signal more downside.

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 5: Cable has been following his seasonal pattern very well over the past month and we should expect more downside to come.First level of resistance is at 1.5330 while support stands at last week low 1.5150

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 6: As expected we have challenged again the big psychological figure 1.5000 but we haven't managed to get a weekly close below it. This week we should expect to act as support level. For this coming week first level of resistance comes at 1.5110 only 24 pips above my initial forecast of just 1.5086. If the big figure holds there is a high probability that my level to be hit on the 1st of December

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Daytrader21 1 Dec.

Update 6 : This has proven to be a pretty good forecast with only 9 pips deviation from my initial forecast of 1.5086. As expected the fact that we couldn't close below the big psychological figure 1.5000 on a weekly basis has made this bounce possible. First we hit resistance at 1.5125 from where the sell off started and we close the 11:00-12:00 candle at 1.50772. This prediction was on target the whole day and definitely it could have been much better.

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Silver Broken Trendline

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on XAG/USD, Target: 15.9200, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendline #Bullish #Silver #XAG/USD #Swing Low
Silver bearish trend may have ended once we broke the trendline that connects the 2011 highs and all the intermediate highs of this bearish trend. This bearish cycle has lasted almost 4 years and based on my experience any new major trend starts with a trendline breakout of previous trend. We already broke to the upside of the trendline that connects the highs of this bearish trend at beginning of the year(see Figure 1), and not only that but we had a successful retest of th…
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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 1: Silver broke to new lows and it's fading below 14.00. We're still moving in consolidation and I'm not expecting a running market. A retest of the current top range at above 15.60 is in cards. First level of resistance stands at 14.70 which is also a pivot point a break and a close above it should see further upside

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 2: After a false break below key support level 14.27 and previous major swing low point we managed to get back inside the big range. In the short-term there is scope for another retest of the big figure 15.00 before to see another attempt to break current resistance at 15.55.

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Daytrader21 28 Sep.

Update 3: As expected we broke above the 15.00 big psychological number and managed to find resistance at 15.50. Right now we're trapped inside this tow levels, but current price structure still favors a break to the upside.

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Daytrader21 15 Oct.

Update 4: As expect over the past few days Silver has had an impressive rally and it already reached my target and beyond. Right now the current range in play is between 15.60 which should act as support and on the upside we have 16.30 which is a big pivot level.

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EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.6913, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #EUR/GBP #Elliott Wave #Psychological Number #Support Resistance
Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 1: Even though we had quite a strong rally above previous swing high at 0.7400 we should see a fade back as the structure of current up leg looks very thin and we need to fill in the gap. First level of support is at 0.7220 a break and a close below it should see further downside.

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