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The AUDUSD loos like it has some more room to move lower. However, it bounced slightly as the week closed and the retraceent may extend to 0.78. I therefore think that a short at around 0.78 with a target in the region of 0.765 may be on the cards. It is the RBA next week so that is always a risk.
JurgenS's Blog
EURUSD heading up
Well the EURUSD looked like it was heading far lower until the Whitehouse announced possible tariff's for steel and aluminium imports. Immediately the USD came under pressure and the EUR made a strong rally on decent volume. It looks preety certain that 1.215 is now a floor in the market and that the pair will aim for the highs and above - probably around 1.27 in the course of the month or so.
Cable bullish
GBPUSD looks to have made a base around the 200MA on the 4H chart which comes in at around 1.348 - therefore it looks like a low is in place at 1.376. A target is the recent highs which gives a good risk reward for a long trade with a stop below the low and a target of the recent highs.
USDX resistance
The USD index is running into some stiff resistance at around the 90 mark - below the 200MA on the 4H chart. Although the nbearish move this year has been extended, the set up looks like once more move lower is likely. This indicates a long versus the USD of any major currency. The AUD and EUR are looking like the best options at the moment.
Kiwi support
It looks like the NZDUSD has found support around 7180 with an impulsive move higher from that area. Focus will now be on whether that level holds this week. A break lower will see s protracted retracement/consolidation. If we can make higher highs and lows then we should break the recent highs this month.
EURUSD finds support
The EURUSD retraced last week after failing to take ou the highs. But the 200MA on the 4H chart and the strong 1.22 zone provided support in later trading on Friday. This level now becomes key. If it holds and we see a series of higher highs nd lows we should see 1.26 and higher this month. Breaking below will mean a longer consolidation and a neutral medium term stance.
AUD at big level
The USDAUD is at the 61.8% retreacement of the last move up and looks to be finding support around the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at around 7750. The overall bullish aspect therefore remains in tact and - if the level is in tact in early trading next week - there may be a long indicated.
BOE helps Cable
The BOE - although there was no surprises, pointed towards a normalisation of monetary policy over the medium term and this caused the markets to see hikes as a possibility. As a result we have had a rally from 1.3835 and that level now becomes a low to watch. If that level holds we should see Cable break the recent highs this month.
Low Volatility
It appears that the high volatility in the equity markets over this week have drawn attention away from forex where we have a largely consolidating landscape across most major pairs. there is little direction and the markets are better for scalpers than swing traders. I prefer directional markets so it is difficult to identify good opportunities in these markets.
Cable supported
Cable has made a ABC retracement and reached through the 50% retracement before bouncing. There is a low in place at just above 1.383 and, if this level holds, we will see an impulsive bullish move to break the highs shortly. If the levels gives way in the next day or so it will be a lengthier retracement and consolidation.