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GBPUSD intra-day analysis

RedPhoenix Posted 15 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
GBPUSD formed a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday as data from the Office for National Statistics showed that consumer increased less than expected at a pace of 1.8%.
Economists expected to see CPI rise 1.9% instead. The British pound came under pressure with a stronger US dollar, closing the day at $1.2468.
Price action continues to trade rather flat with $1.2400 support remaining in sight.
After today softer UK wages we can expct the GBP to continue declining, going short if 1.2400 gets brea…
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December 2016 UK industrial production 1.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m

RedPhoenix Posted 10 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
The UK is booming!
That's hardly the case but this data confirms a solid end to the year.
In the Nov IP report I wrote this;
"Very good numbers from UK industry. We've already seen that the year could be ending well in manufacturing via the Dec PMI.
This one lags those by a month so we should (on paper) see this sustained."
The Jan PMI then dropped a tad to 55.9. If we draw the same conclusion again, (on paper) Jan should at least keep these gains but that makes the bigger risk that they don't. …
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BOJ's Nakaso says it's appropriate for them to continue powerful easing

RedPhoenix Posted 9 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
Bank of Japan dep gov speaking in Japan 9 Feb
  • still a long way from price target
  • easing not aimed at FX rate but to achieve 2% price target asap
  • nations well understand BOJ's intentions for easing
  • BOJ decide operations by looking at market
  • will continue buying sufficient JGBs
  • daily bond operations don't suggest policy stance
  • importance of free trade is a shared understanding amongst G7/G20 nations
  • doesn't think protectionism will spread around the world
Maybe we have seen the bottom of Usd/Jpy
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AUD/USD holds its ground after the RBA decision

RedPhoenix Posted 7 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
The Reserve Bank of Australia made its first rate decision of 2017 after a break in January.
The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% as widely expected. While Phillip Lowe and his colleagues did express some worries about the strength of the Australian dollar, they did not really “talk it down”.
AUD/USD holds its ground around 0.7660.
The RBA sounded optimistic about various factors.
The global economic conditions are seen as improving, with the Chinese economy growing stronger in the s…
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EUR/USD slips ahead of Draghi’s testimony

RedPhoenix Posted 6 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
ECB Mario Draghi will take the stage at Brussels, testifying before the European Parliament.
His public appearance comes as euro-zone data has certainly been on the mend.
Inflation, the ECB’s “single needle in the compass”, or only mandate, has climbed up to 1.8%.
This is not only stronger than economists had anticipated, but also matches the aim of the Bank: inflation at, or a bit below, 2%.
In the latest rate decision, Draghi dismissed the rise in inflation.
He pointed to the fact that the r…
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3 Factors That Are Limiting Your Forex Profitability

RedPhoenix Posted 5 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
1. Improper position sizing
Position sizing is a key element of risk management that can spell the difference between catching a big fish and snagging a small fry. It goes beyond knowing how much you stand to lose – you also have to know when to trade big and when to minimize your risk exposure.
When the market is trading in your direction and you are dealing with a high probability setup with large potential rewards, it may be a good idea to increase your risk. In Blackjack, it’s like betting …
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Key events/releases for the trading week starting February 5th

RedPhoenix Updated 4 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
The week after US employment blues...
The week after the US employment week is generally speaking a dud of a week. When you add the Fed meeting that came and went this week, it is almost not worth getting up in the morning. Just kidding. Nevertheless, the US calendar is light.
[list=1][/list]…
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US January employment report

RedPhoenix Posted 3 Feb.  in #Trader's blog
Hi all.
US January employment report, that is the name of the game today
  • 1330GMT
  • The consensus median expected is up 180K
  • Prior was up 156K
During London, we have the UK Services PMI on tap. The services sector is by far the largest sector of the UK economy, making this PMI the most significant, and potentially the most volatile.
We close out the week with the main event, the U.S. employment report. The Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to come in at 180K for January, with wage growth expected…
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Trump is the new King of the Western World, so what's next for currencies ?

RedPhoenix Posted 9 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
Donald Trump achieves the unlikely and will be the 45th President of the USA
Yes folks ,like it or not we have a new leader of the Western world and markets are already running around like a mad dog after it's own tail.
From here it's all guess work and no one will have a definitive answer, not even Trump himself whatever plans/schemes and automobiles he may be working on.
One thought I did have niggling away in the background in the lead up was whether the Fed would raise rates in Dec as widely…
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8 August

RedPhoenix Posted 6 Aug.  in #Trader's blog
Super Thursday
It's a big day for the pound and may not be one for the fainthearted
All at the same time we get;
  1. MPC rate decision
  2. Vote pattern
  3. Minutes
  4. Inflation report
  5. Updated economic forecasts
So what would that mean for the pound?
  • 2 votes = Mild upside move as it would be expected, if it's the usual two (more if it's someone else)
…
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