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Attitude to risk: Improving investor sentiment on Wednesday was encouraged by statistics from China, where it finally got more optimistic data. The trade surplus of the country in the national currency grew, and in dollar terms, the decline of exports and imports was not as large as expected. Demand for the yen and the franc – a traditional safe-haven currencies – and joined them, the Euro has declined, and rates fell. As for the U.S. dollar will have the value of traditional publishing data on …
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Bullish for the oil market are only a day?
Markets remain extremely volatile. While foreign news trumpeting the death crosses (50-day falls below 200-day) we continue to monitor the intersections of the ruble and oil important levels. Reliably at the moment we can only say that with the advent of autumn and the return of activity in the markets, the tug of war between bulls and bears has become more sharp.
For example, on August 31 the difference between the daily maximum and minimum in EURRUB exceeds 7.5 rubles, and divides these levels…
For example, on August 31 the difference between the daily maximum and minimum in EURRUB exceeds 7.5 rubles, and divides these levels…
The dollar has worsened the sensitivity
While Beijing is trying to stabilize the situation on stock and currency exchanges, the market gradually returns to normal, starting to quickly respond to macroeconomic statistics. The rally in EUR/USD in the European and American sessions FOREX was closely associated with the publication of data on business activity in Germany and in the States, on reduction of unemployment in the Eurozone to the level of 10.9%, the lowest in the last three years, as well as "dovish" rhetoric from fed officials…
EUR/USD: forecast for August 31 – September 6
EUR/USD shot up to 1.1700, "black Monday", reaching the confluence of several important resistances. Because the market was experiencing a lot of stress, investors bought low-yielding Euro as a safe haven. Then, however, global the risk sentiment improved, and the pair reversed to the downside, falling below 1.1300. Data released in the Eurozone last week, as usual, were mixed and were not given any radically new information about the state of the economy of the region.
Meanwhile, Greece was fin…
Meanwhile, Greece was fin…
The dollar held a rehearsal of the battle Royal
From love to hate one step. Currently at the height of popularity of the franc, the yen and the Euro reacted with a friendly snowball's message about monetary policy easing by the people's Bank of China. Basic interest rate was reduced from 4,85% to 4.6%, the Deposit rate is from 2% to 1.75%, the specification of deductions in Fund of obligatory reserves — from 18.5% to 18%. It is obvious that monetary expansion should lead to the devaluation of the national currency, however, it is the gradual …
The index of business sentiment in Germany rose
Today we have published data demonstrating the growth of business confidence in Germany in August. The index of business sentiment Ifo reached 108,3 against the July values 108 and economists forecast 107,5. In addition, according to a report by the statistical office of Germany, in the second quarter compared with the first quarter of Germany's GDP rose 0.4%, the main driver of growth was exports.
Meanwhile, trading in Shanghai today ended with the fall of 7.6%. The main index for the first tim…
Meanwhile, trading in Shanghai today ended with the fall of 7.6%. The main index for the first tim…
USD: forecast for August 24-30
U.S. dollar index at the end of the week reached their lowest level since the end of June (95,40). Increased uncertainty in global markets lowers expectations of increase in the Federal funds rate at its meeting on 17 September. In addition, another argument has become a bit more dovish fed minutes and a weak inflation data, released last week. Currently, the futures market assesses the probability of improvement in September as it is only 24%.
In my opinion, the first rate increase to 0.5% happ…
In my opinion, the first rate increase to 0.5% happ…
The Euro: the higher you climb, the harder you fall
EUR/USD breaks the two-month high, as investors continue to ignore the positive statistics on the States, paying attention solely to offset the timing of the start of the process of normalization of monetary policy by the fed. Bloomberg indicates that since the last FOMC meeting has improved only indicators of the labour market, while the collapse of prices in commodity markets, sluggish inflation and worsening problems in China allow us to postpone the decision to raise rates until better times…
Oil reserves in the US have taken the rouble to
The Russian currency continues to move downward. The lows are updated almost every day, and psychological levels make their way more often than we would like.
Yesterday was no exception. Pair USDRUB ended the trading session higher by 1.10% to 66 rubles 60 kopecks, EURRUB jumped more than 2% to 74 rubles 11 kopecks. Today we have a chance to observe the persistence of negative dynamics.
The main reason for the sales on the Russian currency market of the newly presented oil prices. If yesterday q…
Yesterday was no exception. Pair USDRUB ended the trading session higher by 1.10% to 66 rubles 60 kopecks, EURRUB jumped more than 2% to 74 rubles 11 kopecks. Today we have a chance to observe the persistence of negative dynamics.
The main reason for the sales on the Russian currency market of the newly presented oil prices. If yesterday q…
Fateful day for the dollar
As we expected, calm Monday Tuesday gave way to a slightly increased volatility, while today we are waiting for a full "storm warning". To the output of the prepared the July inflation in the U.S. and the Protocol of the last FOMC meeting, which could radically change the fate of the USD.
Yesterday the leader of the foreign exchange market scale of volatility was the British pound. The GBPUSD from day low at 1.5561 jumped to the maximum in the region of 1.5716, responding to a rather positive pr…
Yesterday the leader of the foreign exchange market scale of volatility was the British pound. The GBPUSD from day low at 1.5561 jumped to the maximum in the region of 1.5716, responding to a rather positive pr…