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USD/CHF in Correction Mode

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9289, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Correction #Snb #Psychological Number #Black Swan
Even thought back in January USD/CHF crashed due the SNB Black Swan even, caused by SNB decision to abandon the 1.2 peg, we're back near parity level, and this is all due to the US dollar exceptional rally. The broad based dollar strength was playing a key role in this impressive recovery and we should see this pair above current year high around 1.0200 level as soon as the dollar bullish trend resume. However right now we're trading inside a big corrective price structure.
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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 4: As expected right now we're establishing the next range box between big figure 0.9500 and current top of the range and support level at 0.9070 current bottom. Next week we should see further consolidation.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 5: As expected the market was moving inside a very tight range moving slowly to the downside in order to retest key support level at 0.9070. For next week resistance stands at 0.9300 which is a broken support level that will act as new resistance.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 6: We indeed retested the 0.9300 resistance level and current price is a little bit above at 0.9350 which is still inside the range zone where the market could see a move lower. We need a break and a daily close below 0.9300 round number.

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Daytrader21 29 June

Update 7: As expected we broke below the key round number 0.9300 and we have gone as low as 0.9240 which is also the current daily low and which should act as support so for the next 24 hours we should expect price consolidate between 0.9300 and 0.9240

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Daytrader21 30 June

Update 8: The market close above the key resistance level and round number 0.9300, and we where 23 pips away from my forecast

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USD/CHF Back Towards Parity

Daytrader21 Posted 28 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9936, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fibonacci #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Parity #Snb Black Swan
Even thought back in January USD/CHF crashed due the SNB Black Swan even, caused by SNB decision to abandon the 1.2 peg, we're back near parity level, and this is all due to the US dollar exceptional rally. The broad based dollar strength was playing a key role in this impressive recovery and we should see this pair above current year high around 1.0200 level as soon as the dollar bullish trend resume. Right now we're trading in between two big round numbers, with support level at 0.9500 and …
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Daytrader21 11 Apr.

Update 1: The 0.9500 level, big round number, has provided a good support and the market could break below it proving the current up trend. Next week we have a pivot point at 0.9900 which must be tested but however I don't think we're going to break higher than that for the time being the market seems in a much complex consolidation

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Daytrader21 18 Apr.

Update 2: The market seems trapped inside the 0.9500 big round number and support level and 0.9860 resistance level. Over the past weeks we trade inside this wide range. We need a clear breakout of the resistance zone in order to have a chance to hit our target

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Daytrader21 20 Apr.

Update 3: The market seems to be holding above 0.9500 big round number quite well, we already posted a green Monday candle this should help keeping up the momentum

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Daytrader21 25 Apr.

Update 4: Well even thought 0.9500 was still holding the market there wasn't enough momentum to push it higher and basically we're unchanged from last week. The line of least resistance is still to the upside however there is not enough time to catch up 500 pips to meet our target

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Playing with CHF Pairs

Daytrader21 Posted 4 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/CHF #USD/CHF #Intervention #Synthetic Hedge
This is the first time I trade EUR/CHF since the peg was introduced as I wasn't even watching this pair during this whole time, but now that SNB has removed the floor, and at least in theory, they're letting the market to decide the exchange rates. Because in practice if you have been watching the PA you could have noticed it's very manipulative. There are many rumors that SNB is intervening in the market and is trying to maintain a dirty float between 1.0500 and 1.1000 as some rumors are saying…
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anna_t 4 Feb.

Good luck in contest!

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USD/CHF Fractal Update.

Daytrader21 Posted 27 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/JPY #Update #USD/CHF #Fractal
After managing to catch almost 1000 pips from 0.8700 bottom, over the past 2 weeks you could have made another 300 pips, round turn, if you would have traded the EUR/JPY-USD/CHF Fractal (see Figure 1) that I've provided in this blog post: USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range. 1000 Pips Profit
Figure 1. EUR/JPY - USD/JPY Fractal

I'm really impressed by the precision of this fractal and it has unfolded so far and now, it's time for an update chart (see Figure 2)and look at what is next to come.…
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USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range.1000 Pips Profit

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Bullish #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Range #Fractal
I've posted in my blog this analysis on USD/CHF that I'm going to reproduce here more than 5 months ago, you can find the original post here: USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range.
"Since over 3 years USD/CHF has been trading in a wide range like many other CHF pairs. We have established between 0.9970 resistance level and 0.8600 support level an consolidation zone which based on Elliott Wave we can count only 4 waves which suggest that we still have to make another leg to the upside to comple…
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VictoriaVika 15 Oct.

Daytrader21  yoooooo :) Best of luck :)

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Daytrader21 15 Oct.

VictoriaVika Thx and Good luck!!!

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Lencoeur 15 Oct.

Awesome work, as usual.

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Daytrader21 15 Oct.

Lencoeur gracias amigo:)

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JuliaBF 16 Oct.

Well done!

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Count

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9835, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Snb #Bullish Trend #Trading Range #EUR/CHF Peg
The broad base dollar strength across the board has manage to change the bearish sentiment on this pair and since beginning of this summer USD/CHF has been trading in an steady bullish trend. Based on Elliott Wave count (see Figure 1) we still have much to go to the upside before to complete a five wave sequence. We have just completed wave III and wave IV is ready to develop a corrective phase before another upward leg to take place and complete the five wave sequence.
Figure 1. US
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: Wave IV has been deepening below the 0.9450 level however this doesn't change much the price structure and we're on track for further consolidation as usually based on Elliott Wave during wave IV we should expect and ABC correction or some type of consolidation.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: Since we took out the previous swing high at 0.9685 and made a new high this means that the wave IV has ended and wave V is currently developing. This final wave can take shape of another 5 wave of smaller degree. Support remains at 0.9500 big round number which is also the 50% retracement of last up leg from 0.9370 low. Key resistance remains 0.9700

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 3: As expected last week we couldn't break below 0.9500 big round number and neither break above 0.9700 as the market has closed near that level. Although we haven't succeed breaking and closing above 0.9700 the momentum is still to the upside and next week we should expect the up trend to resume. For next week 0.9660 is the support level and we should expect a break above previous swing high 0.9740 and beyond.

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USD/CHF Trading Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 20 July as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.8923, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Volatility #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Box Effect
Since SNB has introduced the 1.200 EUR/CHF peg, USD/CHF volatility has dropped to all time low and this has greatly impacted the price action. On the weekly chart this can be observed very clearly (see Figure 2) how even in the current year the market range has narrowed and become even tighter, roughly 400 pips. Usually during this slow periods price will continue consolidating until we'll break into a new trend.
Figure 1. USD/CHF Weekly Chart
On the daily chart (see Figure 2) w…
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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 1: As per my analysis we should go up but before down but the breakout to the upside from last box lacks momentum behind it as we have no strong close above that box. What I'm expecting next is for the market to turn back inside that box and this time use as support level the middle of the box which is 0.8950 level.

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Daytrader21 3 Aug.

Update 2: As per my weekly chart 0.9150 and so far the high was at 0.9105 and the momentum has started sifting to the downside, this may big a sign that we're turning lower back inside the previous trading box but we need a break and a close below 0.9000 round number and psychological number

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 3: Current price structure is suggesting we're making a top and this up leg is overbought, but we need a break below 0.9000 big round number to have our confirmation that sellers are in control. Resistance stands at 0.9100 and next big support stands at 0.9000 any break of this to levels will either stimulate more upside or downside.

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Daytrader21 16 Aug.

Update 4: As expected we finally started to break lower although 0.9000 is still intact there is high pressure building above this level and we may soon see a break

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USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.8915, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Range #Downward Channel
Since over 3 years USD/CHF has been trading in a wide range like many other CHF pairs. We have established between 0.9970 resistance level and 0.8600 support level an consolidation zone which based on Elliott Wave we can count only 4 waves which suggest that we still have to make another leg to the upside to complete the five wave sequence and before to break out of this consolidation zone. We have in total an 1400 pip range zone.
Figure 1 shows us how the wave count should look like and where e…
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Daytrader21 21 Apr.

Update 1: Failure to break the past swing low at 0.8700 is a confirmation that the wave D has been completed, but we completed without making a 5 wave to the downside as per Figure 2 but this is should be taken as strong bullish sign and we should see the market moving to the upside.

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Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: The 0.8700 level is still holding the price and as long as that level hold we can consider my analysis valid. The move from the 0.9850 high is in a 3 wave decline suggesting is just a corrective wave and we should expect market start picking up from current level. But first resistance level stands at 0.8800 level where we need a break and close above that level

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: As per my last update we started moving up and established a bottom. Although we already hit our target the market need to take a pause to establish another base before the next move as this could be just wave 1 of wave E. Support is at 0.8880 and resistance is at 0.8950

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Daytrader21 24 May

Update 4: As of today we're 40 pips past our target and if upside momentum doesn't slow down we can miss our target but based on elliott wave we already completed a five wave move from 0.8700 level so we can expect a correction back towards 0.8900

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Daytrader21 31 May

Update 5: As expected we pulled back and we're now in a process to make an ABC correction from 0.8990 highs. Currently we're in the process of developing the wave A which should find support at 0.8900 strong support level. I'm very confident as the current wave structure suggest we should get closer to our target

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USD/CHF Large Range Key Reversal

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9070, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Impulsive Wave #Triangle #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Five Wave Cycle #Snb Intervention
Since latest SNB intervention in the market from around 2 years ago USD/CHF have been trading in a big range zone from a high of 0.9970 to a low of 0.8890, an wide 1080 pips range zone. Based on Elliott Wave theory we can easily see that this contracting range over the last 2 years has form a triangle that conforms the requirement of 5 waves based on Elliott Wave analysis. Based on this I see the last deep towards the 0.8890 low, labeled E in Figure1 as the last corre…
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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 1: The market is already giving us signs of topping around 0.9250 as momentum slowed down. This is the first wave of a new five wave sequence to the upside, from here on the market could retrace back all the way down until 0.8900 swing low point or our second option is for the market to correct only half way at 50% fib retracement level of previous level at 0.9065

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 2. As predicted we have just entered in the stage of developing wave 2, but we still have to break below 0.9080 support level which was quite a strong support level in the last days. But that fact that this level was retested for so many times suggest that at some point in time it will become weaker and we can break below it.

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 3: As I said in my previous update the market has indeed broke below 0.9080 support level. Right now the market is in an retracement mode and I'm still expecting lower level before wave B is completed, next support level is around 0.8950 from where we should expect the market momentum to pick up

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Daytrader21 9 Dec.

Update 4: Based on Elliot wave theory wave 2 can often retrace till the start point of wave 1 which in our case is 0.8890 but in order for our forecast to be validated this swing low point must hold, expecting this week momentum to pick up. Next resistance level where the market may find some problems on the way back up are the following levels:08980 and 0.9040 if we manage to break and close above it than we may see our target hit

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 5: Because we broke below wave E and 0.8900 level it may suggest that this is an irregular triangle, but next week is key, if we manage to close back again above 0.8900 it will show us if this downside break is a genuine break or is a false breakout

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