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How to trade a surprise Fed decision

annatimone Posted 30 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Trading #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #Economy #Us #Fomc #Fed #Bernanke
Can the market really be this complacent heading into a Fed decision?

On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
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stane2405 30 Ott

well, I was surprised! my clock/time was 1 hour late, hehe

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Why it is time to bet big on Japan

annatimone Posted 27 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #JPY #Trading #Japan #USD/JPY #Nikkei #Abe #Japan Economy #Japan Market
Will Japan finally get out of its two decade slump?
I have heard that Japan is finally “recovering” from the very beginning of my career. Clearly all those instances have been false starts but this time there are some key differences.

The year of 1984 was a time where Japan was still economically dominant – remember all the textbooks written about Japan’s economic miracle? But Alphaville’s great song also includes the apt lyric “Here’s my comeback on the road again”.
Will the Abenomics “comebac…
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mag avatar
mag 28 Ott

Thanks for sharing this explanation

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Trading is about watching and listening to what the price

annatimone Posted 17 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #EUR #JPY #USD #Trading #USD/JPY #Market #EUR/USD #Prices
The dollar’s failure to continue the rally as yesterdays deal unfolded was the sign of things to come. The Dagong downgrade just added to what was already happening. The threat of downgrades have been well publicised all the way through the debt crisis and despite the deal they may still happen.
The ratings agencies weren’t just hanging on the deal but the way the US dealt with it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see another downgrade hit the wires. Fitch has already put the US on a warning and the o…
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mag avatar
mag 17 Ott

analysis - evaluation - evolution -action

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Welcome to the FX week! Monday morning Forex prices

annatimone Posted 13 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #GBP/USD #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #USD/CAD #EUR/USD #NZD/USD #USD/CHF #Fx Prices
Good morning, afternoon, or evening to all and welcome to the kick-off of the FX week.
With only the New Zealand market open at this time, market liquidity is super thin compared to most other times of the trading week, so please take care out there.
Price guide:
  • EUR/USD 1.3561
  • USD/JPY 98.21
  • GBP/USD 1.5979
  • USD/CHF 0.9096
  • USD/CAD 1.0368
  • AUD/USD 0.9420
  • NZD/USD 0.8292
Again, the usual caveats apply – it is relatively illiquid and prices can move sharply on not very much at all.
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USD/JPY plows above 98.00. Look at the orders

annatimone Posted 10 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #JPY #USD #Trading #Yen #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Eud
USD/JPY is on a roll.
It dipped to 97.63 after the jobless claims numbers but has ripped to 98.14 since. It’s the highest since September 30 — before the government shutdown. There are some mid-sized offers at 98.20 with more stops above. Larger offers are at 98.50.
There are 98.05 and 98.25 option expiries but they’re so small they’re insignificant. There is nothing large on the calendar today but tomorrow there are large 98.75 and 99.36 strikes.
EUR/JPY is testing stops above 132.65 — high so…
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Yen stands out as haven in US debt drama

annatimone Posted 8 Ott  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #JPY #USD #Yen #USD/JPY #Us Shutdown #Us Debt
Yen stands out as haven in US debt drama:
  • The yen has emerged as the preferred haven for investors worried by the stand-off in US debt talks
  • no sense of panic in foreign exchange markets, with investors assuming that US politicians will eventually strike a deal,
  • there has not yet been a general flight from currencies viewed as riskier
  • analysts expect a greater flight to haven currencies if talks drag on and say there is greatest immediate scope for flows into the yen
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US Headed for a Government Shutdown

annatimone Posted 29 Set  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #JPY #USD #Yen #USD/JPY #Us #Obama #Government #Obamacare
Early on Sunday the US House voted, once again, to tie a vote on government funding to a one-year delay of Obamacare. The Senate has twice rejected the amendment and will rejected it again. If not, Obama will veto it.
The seeming lack of progress means a shutdown at midnight on Monday is increasingly likely. It will be the first government shutdown since 1996.
With the Tea Party seemingly taking control of Republican leadership, there is a chance this could be an extended fight. When markets ope…
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Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 30 Set

Анна ,Обаму действительно очень сильно критикует сенат?В России очень живо развивают эту тему..

mag avatar
mag 1 Ott

Interesting article on the line of your blog.
http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130921204955-204274949-a-football-fan-s-reaction-to-renewed-congressional-dysfunction?goback=%2Enpe_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1&trk=prof-post

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How the GDP will affect the USD/JPY?

annatimone Posted 7 Set  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Dollar #Yen #Japan #USD/JPY #Currency #Gdp #Economy #Us
The USD/JPY and the GDP: How Will it Affect this Currency Pair? The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country refers to a country’s total economic output. The number reflects the total production, income and consumption from different sectors that include manufacturing, services, agriculture, mining, and numerous other areas. To get the most accurate result, population growth, inflation and deflation should ideally be considered in the total. For example, if the population growth increases prop…
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Haynes6EU avatar
Haynes6EU 9 Set

Follow your post. Good analysis :)

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USD/JPY technical analysis: My favorite trade

annatimone  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #USD/JPY
USD/JPY is a classic ‘buyer’s remorse’ trade.The pair broke the longterm wedge last week and today it fell back to the old support line. Trading a breakout on the buyers remorse is my absolute favorite all-time trade.
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ivanbgd avatar
ivanbgd 7 Set

we'll see

Haynes6EU avatar
Haynes6EU 9 Set

Follow your analysis :)

geula4x avatar
geula4x 16 Set

+1 Liked: Nice analysis + clear chart! Happy trading :-)

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Forex headlines for June 20, 2013

annatimone Updated 2 Lug  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD/JPY #2013 #Forex Headlines For June 20
We had an interesting day to day in the market and forex world. Update for entertainment purposes: ú Huge moves as the market digests taper ú US Initial jobless claims 354k vs 340k exp ú June US Philly Fed hits highest in two years ú IMF threatens to suspend aid payments to Greece ú June US Markit ma…
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Erialda avatar
Erialda 20 Giu

I really like your articles

alltrade avatar
alltrade 21 Giu

Yeah, that was expected after the end of QE. Most interesting thing for me, from the trading perspective, was how little A/J & N/J moved despite strong moves in some other JPY pairs.

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