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asdfggggggggg's Blog

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Ooops.

asdfggggggggg Posted 3 Feb  in #USD/JPY #EUR/USD
Today this trendline broke really fast, while I was eating lunch. I thought the euro was probably going to bounce off this line, and so I had set my stops too high.
Oh well. To look on the brightside, I'm back to square one which means all I've lost is two days in the trader contest.
After such a rapid rise there should be a period of consolidation, but the longer term analysis is that the price should rise back up towards the orange trendline, with the first level of resistance at around 1.18 (…
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New contest

asdfggggggggg Posted 2 Feb  in #USD/JPY
Well, after briefly capturing the #1 spot I am back down to #2, although I have picked up 33 subscribers, including one live subscriber, with $87k of copied real money volume after less than a day. Needless to say, this is quite a responsibility and I shall endeavour to treat each trade seriously.
Today the USD/JPY triangle-like thing finally broke downwards, and this time we really could see 116 within a day.
I'm taking profit around 116, and withholding judgement on what happens next until I k…
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A long digression into physics metaphors for technical analysis.

asdfggggggggg Posted 28 Gen  in #USD/JPY
The first chart pattern I learnt about was the triangle. An important thing to understand about trading is that complex systems do not follow simple rules exactly. This isn't physics, where the equations of general relativity and quantum electro dynamics have been verified to 11 and 14 significant figures respectively. This is psychology, where people behave in ways which are at best partially predictable and highly complex, but on a massive scale where it is only slight hyperbole to say that we…
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Random musings on the psychology of trading.

asdfggggggggg Posted 26 Gen  in #USD/JPY
I'm starting to suspect that every time I break a major psychological point (today it was 800k) I get overexcited and overconfident and make a mistake which drops me back below.
Psychology can be a pretty big part of trading. I heard a piece of advice that in order to make money trading, one cannot be attached to money. I'd go further and say that more importantly, one cannot be attached to beliefs. If you believe too strongly that the price is going up, you can ignore evidence that says its goi…
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Very long USD/JPY

asdfggggggggg Posted 19 Gen  in #USD/JPY
Excited about the USD/JPY today. Breaking of the orange trendline, among other factors, indicated that the correction is over. Now we are approaching the end of the triangle, so we can expect rapid movement soon, and I'm betting its upwards.
I'm also guessing that the euro is going down, but that hasn't been working so well for me today. While I think it's now starting to turn in my favour - going down - I wouldn't bet real money on it. But the trading contest encourages one to shoot for the moo…
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