Daytrader21's Blog

Avatar

USD/JPY TP Hit

Finally, I've managed to pull-out another profitable trade. I don't know how many of you are aware of the fact that USD/JPY is basically unchanged since beginning of the year as the opening price of 2015 is 119.80. Basically for the entire part of 2015 USD/JPY has moved back and forth around the big psychological number 120.00. The reason behind this trade was that ultimately we're going to see a retest again of the big round number 120.00 and since the short term trend was up I decided to take …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Waiting for FED Rate Decision

Currently I'm holding two positions in my portfolio which neither of them doesn't seems to move in my direction. I went long USDJPY and if in the initial stage it went in my direction almost 50 pips it reverse and now I'm -60 pips in the red on this position. The same was the case with EURAUD it went in my favor +90 pips and it reverse course and right now it's trading around my BE point.
I'm still hoping they will go in my direction but most likely I would have to wait for the FED to be the tri…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?

This is just and extracted post from my latest article which you can find it here: Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?
  • FX Market - Risk Aversion

Markets have consistently experienced " 100-year events" every five years. Paul Tudor Jones

They say the Black Swan events are characterized by rarity and extreme impact and once again the financial markets are proving this to be wrong as theory has nothing to do with reality. Not so long ago we had the SNB event which disrupted the market activ…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Stix avatar
Stix 14 July

Hahaha ! Now that's good business ! :) :)

Daytrader21 avatar

It's always a pleasure doing business with you:)

Stix avatar
Stix 15 July

I scored on both ends of that deal !  Hahaha ! Honesty, I thought it an excellent Article since planning ahead affords peace of mind, which is really beneficial. Personally, I don't have enough years of experience, so the input was really helpful. All in all, it was a good trade ! Thanks so much. :) :)

Daytrader21 avatar

Always glad to hear when people actually can learn something from my work, this means that i'm not writing in vain. Thanks

Stix avatar
Stix 15 July

The Articles are excellent for me because I learn a lot, as with the blogs. Even if some writings are not always agreeable with one's own thoughts, they are good for purposes of reminding oneself of lessons learned and exposure to new ideas. It's never in vain, in my opinion. Here, I remember how little experience I have and how deeply I am engrossed in the detail, at present, so will give some time to forward planning, as a result. I appreciate that - since that is the direction, once the initial work is done. Thanks again. Much appreciated and well written. :) :)

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/JPY Neverending Consolidation

USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level (see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: USD/JPY has had another rejection of the 120.00 big round number and current resistance level. However in order for the downside momentum to really build up we need a break of 118.50. Until than we should expet more range bound activity.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: The market seems to deviate from my forecast and if we are indeed going to break the current high at 122.00 round number the bullish trend may resume without to retest the 166.00 support level

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/JPY Seasonality, More weakness in April

USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level(see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a very wide range…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Daytrader21 avatar

Update 1: The momentum is already pushing to the downside and we have a case for more downside to come in coming weeks which should help hit our target. First we need a break and a daily close below 118.00 big support level.

Angelwales avatar
Angelwales 18 Apr.

good work !!!

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 2: We have still not break below the 118.00 support level and round number. For now the market seems it's poised to take out the stops above the market price. All those highs from previous days have acumpluate a lot of stops

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: We still haven't manged to break below key support zone 118.00 however the pressure is building up strong around that level and once we break below, it should not look back. There is not much of support and us such the price should follow the line of lest resistance, in this regard the market should start breaking to the downside as soon as we open next week from current price of 118.98

Mani avatar
Mani 26 Apr.

good job

orto leave comments
Avatar

Nikkei 225 - USD/JPY Correlation

Last year around the summer time I've made this prediction about Nikkei 225, read more here: Nikkei 225 Will Revive Yen Bearish Trend?
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Trader Contest Day 1

Hi all,
Even thought I'm not sure I'll be able to compete in this month's Trader Contest I'll at least give it a try and see how things develop. At the time being I don't have in my mind any clear setup and as such I'll be waiting for a better opportunity. The wise thing is to remain long the dollar and best trades to express that view are short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY however I don't think that there are any clear opportunities to engage in any of those trades at current levels. I'm expecting …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
agddivisas avatar

Good Luck Daytrader21!

Daytrader21 avatar

agddivisas  Thanks buddy, wish you the same.

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/JPY Trade Explanation

In this blog post I want to share the reason behind my short USD/JPY setup, on which I was stopped out at a small loss -7 pips, which in my book is still a BE trade. The reason why I was short was because we open the market with a gap below the 117.20 support level, and even though later we manage to come back above that support there was not much of a follow through.
Figure 1. USD/JPY 1h Chart.

The 117.20 support level have been tested for so many times that it was obvious that at one point w…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Fractal Update

It seems that my fractal posted the other day, you can find it here:EUR/USD leadin USD/JPY. FOMC vs NFP has not worked out as planned and my concerns regrading volatility expansion where right and the whole picture was distorted.
So based on that plan I was short not only USD/JPY but took a short GBP/JPY (see Figure 1)as well and even though during Asia session the market has moved down by the time we have entered the European session we experience some wild swing and both of this 2 trade moved …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

EUR/USD leading USD/JPY. FOMC vs NFP Fractal


Yesterday I was walking through my charts to prepare my analysis for the coming week and I have found an interesting Fractal (see Figure 1)that may help you track the price action on USD/JPY on every level. But even though we're comparing two historic periods with 2 different events (FOMC/NFP) and it may be the case the market reaction on this two events may be different historically the only reason why I trust this fractal is because it's converging with my previous view on USD/JPY that you ca…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 11 Jan.

I wish you well for the next couple of days, dude! ;)

Daytrader21 avatar

yoooo Berkeley I wish you well not just for the next couple of days but for the entire year:)

orto leave comments
More