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Singapore Dollar Oversold on Bigger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年07月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3559, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Down Trend #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Oversold #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Below 20
The Singapore Dollar seems to be oversold on all the bigger timeframes. The pair from a high of over 1.4500 to 1.3500 right now. This is a large move for a currency that mostly follows the USD.
On the first weekly chart above we are seeing that the USD/SGD is already oversold on the weekly charts. The 5,3,3 Stochastic Oscillator is printing values below 20, indicating that the selling may be overdone.
On the second chart below we are seeing a similar situation on the daily chart, with values bel…
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fxsurprise8 2017年09月02日

Everything went according to plan with my forecast. The pair spent the month of August in a range, as can be seen on the chart above.

The August price action is marked with a rectangle on the picture. We opened the month at 1.35742 and closed it at 1.35729, a percentage change of less then 0.01%.

My forecast bet on the pair staying near the what was then the current market price of 1.3559. at 12:00 on September 1st the pair was trading at 1.35451. This is a percentage difference of only 0.10%.

(more below)

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fxsurprise8 2017年09月02日

Overall the intra-month price action suit the forecast too. The monthly high stands at 1.3688 and the low at 1.3504.

This is only 184 pips or a percentage variation of only 1.34%, fairly low even for the forex market. Furthermore as we see in the picture in my previous comment, the lows got quickly bought up and the highs got sold.

This suits in the narrative presented in the opening post of price being oversold and stuck in the main downward trend. These two conflicting forces kept the USD/SGD in a range during August. Overall a solid analysis that panned out nicely.

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Singapore Dollar Near Long-Term Average

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3832, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #50 Retracement #Singapore Dollar #Moving Average #Range Bound #Fibo Retracement #365 Moving Average
The Singapore Dollar is trading near its long-term moving average. On the chart below we can see two things, a Fibonacci retracement tool spanning the most recent swing high and low on the daily chart and a 365 period moving average.
The Fibonacci tool shows us that we're currently trading in between the 50 and 61% retracement, very close to the middle ground of the move during the past 12 months. Two, the 365 MA (in blue) is right now at 1.3858, only 26 pips away from the current price for USD/…
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USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年04月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3970, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
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Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3973, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
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fxsurprise8 2017年04月30日

So far so good! The pair continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price.

But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.

The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. Everything it pointing to more of the same! Wish me luck as the contest end draws near!

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fxsurprise8 2017年05月03日

The pair continued its usual range-bound behavior and ended the contest period at 1.3968, only 5 pips away from my 1.3973 target.

In percentage terms this is around 0.03%, which should land me a spot among the top again. The last few days saw more of the same.

We hit a high of 1.3975 and a low of 1.3940, so again low volatility and range-bound movements prevailed. Stay toned for my final update where I will post an updated chart.

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fxsurprise8 2017年05月03日

Lot of swings with no result! This is how April can be characterized for the USD/SGD. Look at the chart above to see what I mean.

First we rallied to a high of 1.4081 by April 10th, then sold off to a low of 1.3906 on April 25th. The lows were quickly bought up however and the pair rallied back up to 'close' the contest period at 1.3968.

This is only 5 pips away from my targeted price. Overall the forecast was very accurate. It predicted that the USD/SGD will remain locked in range, which is exactly what happened during April.

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Singapore Dollar Back to Long-Term Fair Value

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4037, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Box #Congestion #Us Elections #Trump Bump
After some volatility, especially right after last year's election of Donald Trump, the USD/SGD seems to be coming back to its long-term fair value. On our first chart below we can see that the pair is now trading near the 1.4000 round figure.
This is the same price as back in August of 2015. So 18 months later and the pair hasn't made any gains. We can safely say that the bullish trend is in remission.
On our final chart below we see that even on the lower time-frames the USD/SGD remains undeci…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月27日

UPDATE 1: The Singapore Dollar is trading at 1.3937 right now, exactly 100 pips away from my forecasted price. The picture on the daily charts shows a range-bound March for this currency pair.

We opened the month at 1.4026, the high (so far) stands at 1.4218 while the low was set at 1.3906. We're now entering a cluster of previous levels that may act to slow down the losses and hopefully cause a spurt up in the USD/SGD.

These levels include 1.3962, last October's swing high, followed by the 1.3840 swing high (resistance turns to support) and the 1.3725 swing low set back in 2015.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月29日

UPDATE 2: This for update numero dos! The USD/SGD continues to trade range-bound. We are now quoted at 1.3944, only 7 pips above the price noted in my previous update.

We had some volatility during the last two days for sure, as a high of 1.3985 was hit as well as a low of 1.3914 but ultimately the pair settled back down.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 3: Some position improvement today. The pair jumped to 1.3989 right now, bringing me somewhat closer to my target.

The USD/SGD is on an upswing the past few days. But overall the mean-reverting nature of this pair continues unabated.

The pair opened March at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. I'm sure you can notice the directionless zig-zag pattern here.

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 4: Mean reversion is still the name of the game in the USD/SGD. This can be clearly seen in the 4 hour chart above that shows the price action during March.

The pair opened the month at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. We closed on Friday at 1.3971.

This is only 66 pips away from my forecasted price. With a bit of luck and range-bound markets I could get a place in the top 10!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 5: Not very exciting start of the week for the USD/SGD. First we opened at 1.3973, moved up to 1.3982, only to fall back down to 1.3965.

We are currently quoted at 1.3971, only 2 pips below the weekly open. Nothing decisive as of yet this Sunday, we'll have to wait and see what the trading on Monday brings.

While the current price is fairly close to my forecast (<0.50%) this may not be enough for a good prize this month. I will need the USD/SGD to inch higher a bit tomorrow so wish me luck!

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Singapore Dollar Resumes Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年12月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.44744, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Range Bound #Elections #Mean Reversion #Congestion #Trump Rally
The Singapore Dollar has resumed range-bound trading. On the first chart below the part in the rectangle shows the total monthly range during December. Notice how small that is compared to the previous few months. The open to close range shows an even clearer picture. Here the USD/SGD is at 151 pips during December, compared to 320 pips during November.
The uptrend in seems to be slowly losing steam.In fact during the last half of December not only has the rally slowed down, it has stopped altog…
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Singapore Dollar Will Return to Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4345, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar #Us Dolar #Congestion
I expect to see the Singapore Dollar to return to range-bound trading and here's why. Despite the volatility during the past few weeks, this pair is still well inside the range seen since 2015, as can be seen on the chart below. We are now nearing the crucial resistance level at 1.4441. I don't think the pair will continue higher.
Look at the 8,3,3 Stochastic. It's flashing a value of over 80, signalling overbought market territory. The same can be seen on our next pic below, on the 4 Hour chart…
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fxsurprise8 2016年12月28日

My forecast is not doing so far with today's gains in the US Dollar. The USD/SGD is now trading at 1.4502, clearly above the crucial resistance at 1.4441.

Interesting that during most of the month the USD/SGD was trading range-bound, which can be seen by the small gains made compared to November.

Unfortunately for me, the pair seems to have stabilized in this congestion right above my forecasted price. Still, with the price just over 150 pips and 1 percent away from my forecast, all is not lost. I just need 1-2 days of weakness in the USD to 'turn a profit' here.

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Range-bound Movement for Singapore Dollar to Continue

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3915, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
I'm expecting the range-bound movement in the Singapore Dollar to continue. Reason number one if the chart below. Here we see that we're trading little changed since the middle of 2015. We're now quoted at 1.3914, only 41 pips away from the mid-point mark between the high and low during the past 2 years.
If that point didn't underscore how constrained the USD/SGD has been, then maybe a lower timeframe chart will. On the 4 Hour chart below we can see the pair stalling after large gains made durin…
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Singapore Dollar to Stay Put

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3621, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Doji #Range Box
I'm expecting the Singapore Dollar to stay put in October and here's why. First the pair made a 'near doji' candle in September. I say near because the open was at 1.3622 while the close was at 1.3619, not EXACTLY the same as required by the theory. But for a monthly chart, this is close enough.
The doji signals indecision in the market. Neither the bulls nor the bears could make any headway this month so we ended up right where we opened. Furthermore on our next chart below we can see that sinc…
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Singapore Dollar Downtrend Rejected

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年08月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3618, 予想日: 3日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Fomc #Rejection #Singapore Dollar #Downtrend #Jackson Hole #Range Box
For a third time this year, the downtrend in the USD/SGD has been rejected. On the chart below we marked these 3 rejections with smaller rectangles. This rejection forces the pair back into its range. The general area of support is around 1.3300 to 1.3350. On the top side, the resistance is around 1.3800 to 1.3841.
This particular range has been unbroken since March of this year. But the USD/SGD has been trading undecided for over a year now. Let's take a look at this range on the weekly chart. …
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fxsurprise8 2016年09月29日

The USD/SGD is still inside that 1.3300 - 1.3800 range. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices fluctuated in an even smaller rectangle.

But despite the ups and down we're now quoted at 1.3639,  only 21 pips away from my forecast. So far everything is going according to plan.

Let's hope for a calm month end so prices stay near where they are.

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fxsurprise8 2016年09月30日

Another range-bound day in the Singapore Dollar. Today we opened at 1.3640 then rallied to a high of 1.3665. This is below the monthly high as prices have been subdued by the selling at resistance.

From here we fell back down on general US Dollar weakness and a low of 1.3621 was hit. We're currently quoted at 1.3627, close to the daily lows and only 9 pips away from my forecasted price.

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fxsurprise8 2016年10月01日

Time for a chart update!  The USD/SGD is still inside the 1.3300 - 1.3800 range noted in my original post. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices traded in an even smaller range.

We closed on Friday at 1.3619, only 1 pip away from my forecasted price! This shows just how range-bound this pair has traded lately.

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fxsurprise8 2016年10月03日

The USD/SGD is edging higher today. We opened the new week at 1.3618 and from here prices rallied to a high of 1.3644

The pair is currently quoted at 1.3640, 22 pips from my target. Let's hope for some help from the coming Monday session. The start of the week can be slow and frequently leads to a reversal of these opening moves.

The Monday European session could be even slower then usual tomorrow as Germany celebrates Unity day. Hopefully these circumstances will help keep prices firmly anchored close to my forecasted price. 

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fxsurprise8 2016年10月04日

Time for a final update. The USD/SGD was quoted at 1.36441 at 12:00 on October 3rd. This is 26.1 pips or 0.192% away from my target.

On our chart above we can see that after the rejection on the downside, the pair stayed within the confines of the range noted in my original post (1.3300 - 1.3800). The area marked with a rectangle shows the price action during September.

The high during this month was 1.3697 while the low was at 1.3434. The open to close range was even smaller at 22 pips. This underscores how range-bound the USD/SGD has been trading lately and confirms my initial forecast.

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