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Geopolitical Risk Greatest Threat to Risk Aversion

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #EUR/USD #Ukraine #Us Dollar #Geopolitical Risk #Risk Aversion #Treasuries
Risk in the market remains elevate by current Russia-Ukraine conflict on the one hand and USA&EU vs Russia sanctions. I'm expecting this geopolitical risks to remain elevate in coming weeks as there are no sign of any de-escalation of this conflict. In this regard we should expect market sentiment to be in risk aversion mode as this is clearly suggested by the lower equity price and higher Treasuries.
Globally there is more than just Ukraine-Russia conflict we have Gaza-Israel conflict, Iraq, S…
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Gold - Next Move

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Bullish #Correlation #Gold #Ukraine #Bonds #Risk Aversion
I've been quite busy and on tight schedule lately and I barely could have time to update my blog but I'm Back!
Since Gold has been keep pressing to the upside I just want to make an update to my previous remarks about gold which you can read here: Gold Outlook
Since the risk aversion kicked in with the Ukraine crisis not only that I've been watching very careful what gold is doing but I've been trading it very actively. Right now I think that gold has already started for a big upside leg that ca…
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5 Comments
Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 13 Mar.

wow))

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 13 Mar.

You don't have the right to say "WOW", only I can say WOW to your photos:))

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DaytradeMillionaire 13 Mar.

I like your analysis especially since my TP is set almost exactly the first target ;)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 13 Mar.

DaytradeMillionaire lets hope we can make some profits on this one:)

jezz avatar
jezz 23 Mar.

1390 and facepalm? :P

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Nikkei Invalidated Risk Aversion

Daytrader21 Posted 4 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #JPY #Ukraine #Nikkei #Risk Aversion #Risk On Off
Recent developments in Ukraine have been very risk averse to the market and classic safe haven assets classes like Gold and yen saw some capital inflow. And I was long both yen and Gold, but last night something caught me attention which was Nikkei which suggested to me that we are set for a rally. Price structure on Nikkei made me change my mind and from being net long yen which means short xxx/jpy pairs, to being net short yen which means being long xxx/jpy.
Usually in time of uncertainties Ri…
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Convallium 6 Mar.

You are write useful articles) Excellent!

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1979 Russia Invasion of Afghanistan. 2014 Ukraine. Gold Price

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #War #Ukraine #Gold Price #Cu
In this blog post I'm going to reproduce a small part of my in depth analysis over Ukraine crisis and what it means to the market. The whole analysis should be published in form of an article during this week, right now my article is waiting for approval, but meanwhile we can look at what an Russian invasion in Ukraine means to the Gold market

[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 3 Mar.

LOL, I'll have to confess that I'm very confused:), please translate:)

jezz avatar
jezz 3 Mar.

First, I need to go buy some... and as they say it on TV - will be back after these messages.
What I didn't catch is the explanation of the fall of price of gold upon the invasion of Georgia. I know that you don't take out random events and put them in context to prove your theory.
But what I find intriguing in your fractal analysis is the fact that the single currency is on stage now. That could be the explanation of the same direction of gold and USD, that is abandoning the EUR. The market tends to repeat itself, but the players have changed, so not to follow each theory blindly.

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Daytrader21 3 Mar.

First you must understand the cycle we're in don't forget 2008 was the year of the risk aversion. Also at that point Gold has been in full development of the secular bull market without any sights of it to end, I mean everyone was bullish on gold and we got the opposite effect just because when the majority of the trading participants are u=in one side of the market usually the market goes in the opposite direction. In 1979 there where other condition and we where in another cycle. When working with correlation you must understand the cycle, otherwise it won't work.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 3 Mar.

I know I'm giving you a simplistic view but right now I'm busy managing some big exposure, beside being long gold I also bought some yen and sold the eurusd from Friday, now back in my cave:))

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Metal_Mind 3 Mar.

I have some update buddy about Ukraine. The things are as follow. The markets put an hold today as tomorow will be the decisive day when invasion will or will not happen. USA has it's hands tied up. They can't enforce anything against Rusia.One of the general fromt he security commitee said it will not risk to send warships in the Black Sea since our times aren't Cold war and you can't send them there if you don't intend to use them. European politicians doesn't have much to say either. We consume Russian gas so we are vulnerable in case we opposed mighty Rusia will.

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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Posted 2 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Boe #Boc #Rba #Ukraine #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event #Save Haven

With the uprising tension in Ukraine and because we are in facto in a war the market action may be disrupted by the events developing right now in Ukraine. If the market will get very sensitive to this geopolitical event we can see massive capital inflows into the save haven instruments like USD,CHF,JPY and Gold which is ultimately the hedge against government not inflation as I've been demonstrating in my previous blog posts.
Above all of this next week economic calendar is very heavy and H…
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Maria_r 2 Mar.

+1

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Gold Outlook

Daytrader21 Posted 25 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #Inflation #Gold #Ukraine #Channel #Secular Bull Market
Recently I've seen quite a high blog post "inflation" about the precious metal Gold, so I've decided to give my own outlook about current development in the Gold market. The recent rally in the gold market has been on the front page in the last few days, and everyone is now calling for the secular bull market
resuming his trend.
But if you ask me timing the next big up leg is critical and I only see that coming after we'll have some decent retracement in the equity market.
However recent develo…
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sonjatrader 25 Feb.

Daytrader21 your post are better and better. Nice trading day!!

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Daytrader21 25 Feb.

Thank you Sonia, much appreciated. Wish you all the best!

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Olympics and Stock Market Correlation. Cycle of War

Daytrader21 Posted 17 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #Stock Market #Ukraine #Cycles #Geopolitical Event #Olympics #Cold War
A professional trader will look at just about everything that can give him a statistical edge to make a profitable trade. Even myself as a believer and practitioner of market cycles I'm looking for cycles that can be found from presidential election, Inflation figures, Unemployment figures and even the Olympic Games if there is a statistical evidence that you can make a buck from it than I'll trade it.
According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the…
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Skif 17 Feb.

Не пишите о том о чем не имеете представления , это сообщение касается вашего мнения относительно событий происходящих в Украине .

jezz avatar
jezz 17 Feb.

Sometimes I feel a strong connection (actually I mean love) between you and fractals :D

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 17 Feb.

@Jezz LOL.........Actually, I'm very fascinated about fractals in general and in particular about the applicability in the Markets as well. You just give me an idea, tomorrow I'm going to update one fractal that I've posted here last year, and guess what the market followed that analog quite astonishing:)))). At that moment many didn't believed it will work. You'll have to wait until tomorrow to see about what fractal I speak about:).

jezz avatar
jezz 17 Feb.

Pascal freaks...

ruwim avatar
ruwim 7 Mar.

very interesting, thanks for your research and good luck.

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