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Look for a jump in US unemployment on technicalities of

annatimone Posted 30 Oct.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Trading #Inflation #Economy #Interest Rates #Unemployment #Jobs #Non Farm Payroll
The BLS is out with a technical note regarding the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, due November 8.
This part on the household survey caught my eye:
Workers who indicate that they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expected to be recalled to their jobs should be classified in the household survey as unemployed, on temporary layoff. This would include furloughed federal employees as well as other affected workers. These workers are classified this way regardless of whe…
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Fed says it will await more evidence before QE taper

annatimone Posted 30 Oct.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Inflation #Economy #Interest Rates #Unemployment #Fed #Housing #Taper
Highlights of the October 30, 2013 Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement:
  • Fed funds rate held at 0-0.25%, as expected
  • Monthly bond purchases remain at $85 billion/month, as expected
  • No change to forward guidance on interest rates
  • Fed says data since Sept meeting generally suggests economy continued to expand at a moderate pace
  • Repeats that downside risks to the outlook have diminished on net since last Fall
…
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mag avatar
mag 30 Oct.

Thanks Anna

geula4x avatar
geula4x 30 Oct.

+1 Liked: Nice summary! :-) IMHO we'll see FOMC effect fade soon, and EUR/USD resume upwards momentum... Happy trading :-)

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What to expect from Mr. Governor?

annatimone Posted 13 Aug.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #UK #Inflation #Unemployment #Election #Saving #Mark Carney #Governor Of The Bank Of England #Borrowing
This time of year is commonly known as `the silly season` in the UK, as nothing much tends to come out of government, lots of people are away, and the news media tends to get a bit desperate for substantive content. So it seems that when Mr. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, spoke last week, there was no shortage of comment. From my angle, he did nothing unexpected, and as suggested, his `forward guidance` told us little new and was subject to several caveats. The link to unemploy…
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mag avatar
mag 13 Aug.

It is true, given the doubt prevention in the worst of situations.If it also matches whereas the least, it seems that Murphy's law is met.

annatimone avatar
annatimone 13 Aug.

I agree. I hate to be a pessimist, but it’s good to expect and prepare for the worst. And hope and pray for the best.

Erialda avatar
Erialda 14 Aug.

great article...

annatimone avatar
annatimone 14 Aug.

Thank you very much, Erialda.

sircris avatar
sircris 15 Aug.

Very professional post. +1

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Greek Q2 2013 GDP beats expectations

annatimone Posted 12 Aug.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Gdp #Economy #Unemployment #Greece #Youth Unemployment #Spiegel #Aid #Election #Gfc
Seasonally unadjusted GDP comes in at -4.6% from -5.0% exp giving a sliver good news to the ailing country. Greece also confirmed a primary budget surplus of €2.6bn for the year to July. It’s not all good news though as the figures follow news that Greek unemployment up to 27.6% (record high) in May from 26.0% in April. There’s 1.38m unemployed to 3.62m employed, but there is also 3.32m non-economically active. According to …
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annatimone 13 Aug.

You know, when I lived in Russia, the entire idea of credit didn’t exist. So, what happens if people don’t pay loan back to the bank? In the US your credit history is ruined and you cannot get any future credit and you pretty much cannot do anything. US is credit based system. If I’m not mistaken, Russia is cash based system. That is, if you have cash of course. So, in Russia if you don’t pay loan back to the bank what penalties can you expect? Or what incentives people have to pay loan back?

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 13 Aug.

absolutely agree

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 13 Aug.

банки пытаются выстроить подобную систему регулирования кредитной истории в России,но из за несогласованности их действий получается абсолютная неразбериха,люди берут по несколько кредитов и не несут за это ответственность....к тому же банки существенно завышают процентную ставку,это также плохо сказывается на возвратности кредитов...по сути вгоняют людей в долги как и у вас но пока не так жёстко..

annatimone avatar
annatimone 13 Aug.

Ok, I see. US has well a developed banking and legal systems. Besides the credit history, US legal system provides a lot of remedies to the lender and some protection to the borrower. Plus, don’t forget that US established and developed these systems over centuries and not over night, like Russia is trying to do. In the US generations grew up in this system, so there are certain expectations of responsibilities. And still, US has a lot of problems with borrowing. I can’t even imagine what it’s like in Russia. Thank you for sharing, Nadia. I learned a lot.

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 13 Aug.

yw

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What to expect in the second quarter?

annatimone Posted 30 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Market #Gdp #Growth #Retail Sales #Unemployment #Rates #Us Economy #Consumer Spending
In the first quarter’s revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, we found consumer spending in the U.S. economy was slow, dragging U.S. economic growth lower. Going forward, I can’t help but to expect more of the same. We are already getting warnings from major financial institutions that U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter will be dismal. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc expects the U.S. economy to grow at only 0.8% in the second quarter. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Barclays …
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Nadin5794 30 July

Все говорят о том ,что доллар более стабилен в среднесрочной перспективе,я отношусь к этому скептически,цифры аналитики только верхушка айсберга.Социальный и политический климат в Европе несколько спокойней будет всегда ,так как союзное государство стремится к выработке компромисса не прибегая к прямой конфронтации населением с руководством(госаппаратом),боюсь что американцы уже не пойдут на компромиссы после ипотечного кризиса,реформ министерства обороны и т.д...

annatimone avatar
annatimone 30 July

Nadia, I think you are right. Dollar in a short term will be stable against Euro and major four (Euro, Swiss, Sterling and Japanese Yen). Since, US economy was expanding over the last year and a half, and Europe being stagnated, any surprising slowdown in the US (like housing) could bring more slowdown in Europe, which in return will create a drop in Euro and Sterling.

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 30 July

sooner or later the inflated digits of statistics should be given to real indexes, Europe in this sense is more pragmatic...

annatimone avatar
annatimone 1 Aug.

I agree. I often suspect that economic data/reports in the United States are fixed and not real. Generally, news in the United States is bias. If you want to get a real story, look in European media.

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 1 Aug.

today I am once again convinced that both sides of this confrontation are very unstable and it is possible to wait for anything...

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Growth....a revised, revised approach?

annatimone Updated 28 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Inflation #Gdp #Growth #Unemployment #Data #Jobs #Government #Us Employment
The Office for National Statistics in the UK announced that second quarter growth showed an increase of 0.6% - the best growth figures since mid-2010. BUT, what does this growth figure actually mean to the wider population? The answer is very little. With other closely scrutinized numbers such as unemployment stats, and inflation figures, at least there is a relevance to peoples’ daily lives, but what about GDP?? The breakdown of this figure is where the real interest lies. The services side …
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3 Comments
Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 28 July

haha)) good start of week

annatimone avatar
annatimone 28 July

:) Very optimistic..:) How was your weekend?

Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 28 July

good and thnx for ask

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US has more oil more than all the Middle East

annatimone Updated 13 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Oil #Economy #Crude Oil #Us #Unemployment #Middle East #Opec #Oil Barrels
OIL: US has more oil more than all the Middle East put together! As you may know, Cruz Construction started a division in North Dakota State, US just 6 months ago. They sent every Kenworth (9 trucks) we had here in Alaska to North Dakota and several drivers. They just bought two new Kenworth's to add to that fleet; one being a Tri Drive tractor and a new 65 ton lowboy to go with it. They also bought two new cranes (one crawler & one rubber tired) for that division. Dave Cruz said they …
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mag avatar
mag 17 July

Very grateful for the article, helped me much, complements my argument in for decision-making regarding the UsS Oil, Uk Oil and NGas.

Many thanks!

annatimone avatar
annatimone 17 July

I'm so glad you liked it. Thank you very much for reading and your comment. Good luck with your investments. I hope you are having a good day.

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Is the Federal Reserve Right?

annatimone Updated 2 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Forex #Federal Reserve #Economy #Eurozone #Unemployment #Fomc Meeting #Financial Markets
Is the Federal Reserve Right? At the recent FOMC meeting, Bernanke was not clear about timing and even course of the Federal Reserve in ending bond buying program. His uncertainty created a lot of volatility in the market. Given this volatility, I think it would be very difficult for the Federal Reserve to signal any type of exit strategy without causing some form of market response. In a way, it makes Federal Reserve a hostage to the markets. The challenge for the Federal Reserve would be to …
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nilsaedagar avatar
nilsaedagar 22 June

It is really organized, nice))+1 Liked

alltrade avatar
alltrade 23 June

They don't have an exit strategy..........they are just hoping against hope to create a new economic bubble will sustain itself forever.......but it won't, sooner or later, all bubbles burst, it's the nature of the markets.........

Victor avatar
Victor 23 June

the idea of being uncertain is --to create volatility. So, the outcome is expected.

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