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The dollar will slowly lose reserve status but not for

annatimone Postado 15 Out  em #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Trading #Dollar #Us Shutdown #Congress
The Telegraph nicely sums up the long-term implications of the fiscal impasse in Washington in a story that’s being passed around. A deal is close but it’s a limited can kicking exercise and with a Congress increasingly filled with zealots, it’s impossible to imagine the near-future with a properly functioning Congress. It’s also impossible to envision a future where the dollar is a more-dominant currency; instead it will gradually lose influence (and value).
Politics are grabbing the headlines …
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New proposed debt ceiling limit, Nov 22

annatimone Postado 10 Out  em #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Us Dollar #Debt #Us Shutdown #Us Government #Us Debt Ceiling
There is a tentative report/rumor that Boehner told Republicans they would extend the debt ceiling until November 22nd. It doesn’t sound like this will include anything about a continuing resolution to re-open the government. Rather, they’re looking for ‘broader talks’ on the budget.
If I had to lean out, I’d say that this is it. All the good news is priced in now. The risk is that the market turns on the short-term nature of the hike, combined with the lack of progress on the government shut…
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What is the probability of a US default?

annatimone Postado 10 Out  em #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Market #Fed #Us Shutdown #Us Default
As went enter day 10 of the US political soap opera, the market is still seemingly under the impression that a deal will get done and financial armageddon will be averted. I’m not sure I share it’s views and I feel the dollar is playing chicken with the deadline much like the two parties are with each other.
I want to hear what you guys and girls think, so what’s your percentage probability of the US defaulting?
Mine is 10/90 on a default/solution.
Let’s see if you share the markets optimism.…
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Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 10 Out

абсолютно убеждена,что это очередное искусственное стимулирование рынков как в декабре, январе и марте...

fdsaRUS avatar
fdsaRUS 10 Out



рынки вчера впервые проявили реальные признаки опасений:
Вчера впервые доходность американских месячных векселей выросла выше 30 пунктов, когда банки отказались принимать их в качестве обеспечения из-за опасений, что они не будут выплачены. Ставка по 1-месячным векселям была выше ставки Libor впервые за 12 лет, что фактически означает, что корпорации могут брать необеспеченные кредиты по более низкой ставке, чем американское правительство. Нет сомнений, что векселя будут выплачены, но возможная задержка выплат побуждает инвесторов перемещать капитал в другие финансовые инструменты.

mag avatar
mag 13 Out

I do not see it so clear, 30/70 defaut/solution

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Yen stands out as haven in US debt drama

annatimone Postado 8 Out  em #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #JPY #USD #Yen #USD/JPY #Us Shutdown #Us Debt
Yen stands out as haven in US debt drama:
  • The yen has emerged as the preferred haven for investors worried by the stand-off in US debt talks
  • no sense of panic in foreign exchange markets, with investors assuming that US politicians will eventually strike a deal,
  • there has not yet been a general flight from currencies viewed as riskier
  • analysts expect a greater flight to haven currencies if talks drag on and say there is greatest immediate scope for flows into the yen
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