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USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3970, Date: 1 di Giugno, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
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Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3973, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr

So far so good! The pair continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price.

But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.

The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. Everything it pointing to more of the same! Wish me luck as the contest end draws near!

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fxsurprise8 3 Mag

The pair continued its usual range-bound behavior and ended the contest period at 1.3968, only 5 pips away from my 1.3973 target.

In percentage terms this is around 0.03%, which should land me a spot among the top again. The last few days saw more of the same.

We hit a high of 1.3975 and a low of 1.3940, so again low volatility and range-bound movements prevailed. Stay toned for my final update where I will post an updated chart.

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fxsurprise8 3 Mag

Lot of swings with no result! This is how April can be characterized for the USD/SGD. Look at the chart above to see what I mean.

First we rallied to a high of 1.4081 by April 10th, then sold off to a low of 1.3906 on April 25th. The lows were quickly bought up however and the pair rallied back up to 'close' the contest period at 1.3968.

This is only 5 pips away from my targeted price. Overall the forecast was very accurate. It predicted that the USD/SGD will remain locked in range, which is exactly what happened during April.

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AUD/NZD in Range on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0653, Date: 3 di Aprile, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD has been trading in a tight 550 pips range since July of 2016. On our first chart below we can see that the high of this range is around 1.0770 while the low is at 1.0220.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar

UPDATE 1: While the AUD/NZD didn't trade range-bound so far this month, there hasn't been much movement either. We're now quoted at 1.0808, only 155 pips from my forecasted price.

This is a distance that can be overcome in 2-3 days of trading so there is still a chance here! While prices definitively broke the first resistance at 1.0770, they're having trouble breaking above the second important level.

Overall mixed results so far but hoping that mean reversion will kick in soon. That has been the modus operandi for this pair for the past several years.

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AUD/NZD Still Deep in Range Mode

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dic as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0397, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD is naturally a mean reverting pair due to the closely linked economies of Australia and New Zealand. But this has been the case even more in the past few years as the pair has repeatedly failed to trend. On the weekly chart below we see that any attempt to get something going was shut down, with rallies being sold into and sell-off being bought.
Take a look at the hourly chart below. The pair opened December at 1.0437 and is currently trading at 1.0386, not even 50 pips lower. This s…
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fxsurprise8 31 Gen

The range-bound behavior in this pair continues! We opened January at 1.0375 and we're currently quoted at 1.0393, not even 20 pips higher.

The highest high during this month has been at 1.0570 while the lowest low was at 1.0324. A total monthly range of only 246 pups or just above 2 percent.

This is a very small amount for a pair comprised of two major currencies. Hopefully this trend continues into the end of the contest. We now have the long-term charts, the daily charts and the hourly charts all pointing flat.

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fxsurprise8 1 Feb

On the last day of the contest the AUD/NZD inched away from my forecast. Prices rallied to a high of 1.0433 at one point, but likely we got a pullback as we got closer to the 12:00 mark.

In the end the pair 'closed' the contest period at 1.04143, only 17.3 pips away from my forecasted price. In percentage terms this is 0.1375%.

The short version is the AUD/NZD behaved exactly as expected, continuing in the vein of range-bound trading that has been its mark for years. In my last update I will do a more detailed review of this month's trading, along with a chart to back up my analysis.

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fxsurprise8 2 Feb

Time for a final update. The two lines in picture above show the yearly open at 1.0375 and the contest period 'close' at 1.04143. The range during January is marked with a rectangle on chart.

The two obvious conclusions are one, the pair continued to range this month. You can't see a difference in the price action during January compared to the prior months.

The second conclusion is that prices didn't move much. The price difference between January 1st and the contest end on February 1st was only 39 pips, not even half a percent. Overall everything went according to the plan outlined above.

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Sveetlana 2 Feb

very interesting article! good gob!)

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More of the Same in the AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ott as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0636, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range Bound #New Zealand Dollar
I'm expecting more of the same for the AUD/NZD and here's why. First on the long-term charts we can see that this pair has been range-bound for the past 2 years. Although volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019, no major changes happened in price.
This volatile but untimely range-bound movement can be seen in the second half of this year as well. See the chart below. During October the monthly range has been very small as well at onl…
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fxsurprise8 28 Nov

It's been a trending month for most currency pairs but not so much for the AUD/NZD. Here we saw prices initially fall down over 300 pips, only to rally over 300 pips, then fall by over 200 pips.

So far in November we saw a total range of 340 pips, with a high of 1.0703 and a low at 1.0363.  This may seem like a lot but we are currently quoted at 1.0570, only 61 pips down since November 1st.

Compared to my forecast above we're down by 66 pips or around 0.62%. I will need some bullish movement into month-end to climb higher in the rankings.

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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ott as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 115.09, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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EUR/GBP Nearing Resistance Cluster

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8657, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Resistance #Volatility #Rally #EUR/GBP #Pound #Atr #Brexit
After a long rally that saw the EUR/GBP advance in 8 out of the last 10 months, the pair may finally hit a roadblock. We are nearing a cluster of resistance levels. They start with 0.8724, last month's high, continue with 0.8768 (August 2013 high) and end with 0.8814, a four-year high for this currency pair.
But there are signs that the bull run is slowing down. On the daily chart below notice the constant decline in the Average Daily Range. This is a proxy for volatility. Furthermore since reac…
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 113.93, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Price Change #Ranges
High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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fxsurprise8 31 Ott

With prices at 115.14, the bulls are currently pushing on the upper end of the triangle in the picture above. Earlier in the day we traded as high as 115.25. The10 pips decline is too small to be classified as a bounce yet but if the move lower continues, we can conclude that prices respected the triangle.

The monthly range for the EUR/JPY is now at only 368 pips,with a high at 116.28 and a low at 112.60.These numbers are very close to September which had a 116.35 high and a low at 112.07.

This confirms that my analysis above is correct, this pair is volatile but ultimately stays in range.

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No Clear Trends Seen in AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.052, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range #New Zealand Dollar
No clear trend can be seen in the AUD/NZD. Volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019 in April 2015. But no major changes happened in price as we saw the pair snap back from the extremes.
The two economies of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked thus range-bound movement seems to the norm for this pair. The short-term daily chart below confirm this view. We've made no progress in this pair since June of this year. Furthermore th…
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fxsurprise8 31 Ott

The AUD/NZD is now quoted at 1.0640, about 120 pips above my forecasted price. The monthly range has been fairly small as well at only 260 pips, with a high at 1.0764 and a low at 1.0504.

Furthermore we still remain deep inside the now five-month range that started back in June, with a high at 1.0771 and the five-month low at 1.0236.

The three arguments above confirm my original analysis from above that there are no clear trends in this pair. I will need a helping hand from the market to move prices a bit closer to my target though.

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Range Continues to Constrict in the EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ago as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8491, Date: 3 di Ottobre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Volatility #EUR/GBP #Pound #Summer Trading #Range Bound #Atr #Brexit
After a volatile start to the summer (with the Brexit commotion), the EUR/GBP is slowly calming down. Volatility continues to decline. While June had a range of close to 800 pips, in July the low to high movement was only 377 pips. And this month the range dropped even lower to 279 pips. Meanwhile the open to close range is at even smaller at 45 pips. On the chart below we can see volatility declining in the EUR/GBP.
But volatility isn't everything. Currencies can continue to grind higher or lo…
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fxsurprise8 29 Set

So far the monthly range stands at only 383 pips. The high stands at 0.8716 while the low is at 0.8333.

Open to close we're at +149 pips. This is a bit higher volatility then I expected.

But even so, we're currently quoted at 0.8649, less then 150 pips away from my target. I just need a few down days to bring me closer to my forecasted price :)

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fxsurprise8 30 Set

We're seeing small declines today in the EUR/GBP but they're not deep enough to bring me substantially closer to my target.

Today we opened at 0.8651, moved to a high of 0.8661 only to fall to a low of 0.8604 later in the day. We're now trading at 0.8635, still a good 144 pips away from the forecast. I need more GBP strength to nudge the pair closer to the target.

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