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Greece Saga Final Act

Daytrader21 Posted 28 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Volatility #Greece #Default #Referendum #Risk Aversion #Imf #Black Swan #Grexit
This time around the count down has started for Greece and they are really running out of time. Recent developments in the past 24 hours have been quite substantial and make no mistake about it Greece is going to default as IMF has send quite a strong message that they are not going to move the deadline for the debt repayment which is 30 Jun and the Greek referendum over paying/nopaying the debt is useless.
  • Greece bank Run
Photo Source: TheGuardian

The tell-tale signs of disaster wi…
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Daytrader21 28 June

pipx I just wish I would be that smart to know how things will unfold, unfortunately we'll have to wait and see how the market will open, it will be interesting

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pipx 28 June

Maybe we can try this on a demo, sell EUR/USD +50 pips above Friday close, I will also mess around  with EUR/CHF :-)

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Daytrader21 28 June

EUR/USD has just opened at 1.1000....-160 pips gap :)

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Daytrader21 28 June

Now on EBS is 1.0965 but semi-official FX open in another hour

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CommunitySupport 30 June

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Prepering The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June  in #Trader's blog #CHF #Volatility #Fed #Snb #Grexit #Greece Bailout

Hold on tight as the next week will not fall short expectation when it comes to fx volatility. Greece bailout talks or rather Grexit and Fed rate decision are the main risk event of the week. On the top of that we have SNB rate decision as well but market expectation is for no major change in monetary policy. SNB rhetoric when it comes to the stronger CHF will ultimately dictate CHF direction, however they seems less likely to turn more aggressive any time soon.
In short expect lot of intraday …
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Us Dollar Macro and Technical View

Daytrader21 Posted 4 May  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Volatility #Technical #Macro #Interest Rates #Fed #Us Dollar #Global Easing
The US Dollar has been on the spotlight since beginning of the year as momentum has surprised everyone. Retracements continue to be shallow. The dollar bullish trend is well mature on its own and I thought it's the perfect time to reinforce my view on the dollar as many are asking: what's next for the US Dollar?
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and the US Dollar was up on one point 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, e…
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Preparing The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Updated 3 May  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Rba #Cable #Crash #Correction #Seasonality #Risk Events #Grexit

The coming week is going to be more important than you may think, not only because there are many risk events on the doc that can spur volatility but also because it can mark the turn in the equity market. Don't call me wrong because I'm not calling a crash just a major correction. Since this can be a major topic on itself I'm not going to talk about it here as there are many details that need to be covered. However I'm just going to give you a major hint and I would recommend to watch ES react…
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fxsurprise8 3 May

great article. Where do you find up to date probabilities for rates?

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Daytrader21 3 May

fxsurprise8 You would have to look at bond yields. Look at the 12 month bill  yielding 1.930%, cash rates are at 2.25% -->big money saying 25 bps cut on Tuesday. Here is a free website where you can look at yields (see above), or you can find the data in excel and construct your charts there. I hope it helps. 

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fxsurprise8 3 May

ah thanks a lot

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Black Swan Event Armageddon Style.

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Volatility #EUR/CHF #Brokers #Leverage #Liquidity #Snb #Black Swan #1 2 Floor

In my second blog post of the year I was arguing and making the point of higher market volatility in the year ahead, you can find more about it here: 2015 A Year of Higher Volatility
Did I ever foreseen the level of current madness in the market? By no means NO.
Having said that there where some clues of what is to come as everything was pointing towards ECB aggressive easing measures to be implemented at beginning of the year, and now with EU lawyer approving ECB bond-buying programme as bein…
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Daytrader21 19 Jan.

CommunitySupport  Thanks for keeping us posted. As soon as I was aware of Dukascopy official statement I've made an update and I was pointing anyone in that direction. It was just an unwanted bad rumor and you can't put your all trust in a rumor, so I've advice everyone to take it with a grain of salt.

Me personally and I'm sure many others are please to hear the good news and I'm looking ahead for another 10 great years with Dukascopy and many more.

Keep up the good work!

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Airmike 20 Jan.

good news for us . and good article btw :)

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CommunitySupport 20 Jan.

DUKASCOPY: NO TRADE CANCELLATIONS, NO NEGATIVE BALANCES

Management of Dukascopy Group has decided to take an exceptional decision to cover negative balances on client accounts related to CHF move on SNB decision on 15.01.2015.

In spite of the fact that agreements and regulation allow Dukascopy to claim negative balances compensated by clients, it was decided to release customers from obligation to cover negative balance.

Dukascopy Bank has not cancelled or negatively adjusted any trade concluded on 15.01.2015 with clients during the CHF move.

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Berkeley 20 Jan.

Dukascopy Bank ... first choice! Keep up the good work!

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WallStreet6 20 Jan.

very good article. i agree with Buffet's quote.

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NFP - The State of the US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Posted 9 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Inflation #Unemployment Rate #Whipsaw #Us Labor Market
The market has been exceptionally active since beginning of the year. This higher volatility is not exclusively showing up only on the FX market as other assets classes are exhibiting the same kind of volatility. This higher volatility are having an impact on how the market interprets the economic data as they become more important and the market more sensitive to any deviation from market forecasts.
Even thought NFP is an important market mover this volatility environment makes it even more imp…
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Preview: FOMC Minutes

Daytrader21 Posted 7 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #Volatility #Fed #Fomc Minutes
Today the big risk event we faced is the release of FOMC Minutes from Dec 16 and 17 meeting when we could find more details on FED's interest rates timing and FED's view on the policy tightening. Don't expect much more from what we already know:
  1. FED has replaced the "considerable time" stance with "patience" when referring to the timing of the first interest-rate increase.
…
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2015 A Year of Higher Volatility

Daytrader21 Posted 5 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #Liquidity #Policy Divergence
We haven't even started the year and the market is already posting some crazy volatility in a thin liquidity environment like the Asia session, and this is just the precursor of what may to come. As last year was we saw a perfect symmetry of volatility where in the first half of the year the volatility was pushing towards multiple all time low levels in the second part we saw a pick up in volatility (see Figure 1)
Figure 1. FX Volatility Deutsche Bank Currency Index

This pick up i…
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2015 Global FX Outlook

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Article Contest #Volatility #Bullish #Interest Rates #Fed #Fx Outlook

If the main macro theme of 2014 was the broad based dollar strength, the general consensus for 2015 is for further appreciation of the dollar. The implication of a strong dollar, and with the pick up in volatility, have also set in motion other trends, like the bearish commodity trends(see Metals and Oil), the carry trade has died (see AUD/USD and NZD/USD) and last but not least EUR/USD has finally started trading to the downside.
The broad based dollar strength can have a big impact on US econ…
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verindur 3 Dec.

I think its boisterous and overconfident approach of the US strategicians still beleiving that they have got everything under control. How they are doing it most of the financial experts are aware of it. Most likely in 2016 everything is going to fall apart. And their could be a never seen before scenario.

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Daytrader21 3 Dec.

verindur  As long as we're in a bullish US dollar trend the wise thing to do is to go with the flow as price always follows the line of least resistance there is no need to fight it

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Preapearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Updated 2 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #Fundamentals #Volatility #Central Banks #Qe #Fed

If last week didn't fall behind market expectation an it has produced some impressive moves across the FX market don't expect market activity to cool off, the probability still remains in favor of this trend of higher volatility to persist. The current Central Banks monetary policy divergence across developed economies may play a factor in favor of higher volatility.
  • Europe data:

Despite a lot of data coming from the manufacturing sector, the main event remains the 6 November ECB meeting…
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VictoriaVika 2 Nov.

Best of luck, friend :)

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JuliaBF 2 Nov.

Good luck in a new week)

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