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War bullish or Bearish?

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月05日  in #Trader's blog #Bearish #Bullish #Stock Market #War #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event
Currently the main market driven theme and the high risk event is the geopolitical event happening right now in Ukraine. As we have seen the market has become very sensitive to any risk event The news coming out from Ukraine are escalating very fast the Risk ON-OFF play and usually in time of uncertainties Risk On-Off will play in both sides as things begin to escalate in Ukraine risk aversion will kick in and when things will see some …
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Nicco avatar
Nicco 2014年03月05日

Very, very interesting, as any post of Daytrader! You dom't find any data to interpolate COLD WAR too? The present situation with Russia-Ukraine-The rest of the World I think isn't a true war (I hope so!) but a cold war, or a freesing war...

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月05日

Thanks, Nicco. Cold war doesn't necessarily mean direct military action. Unfortunately I don't have any data as per your request

Convallium avatar
Convallium 2014年03月06日

yes, Ukraine brought risks!

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1979 Russia Invasion of Afghanistan. 2014 Ukraine. Gold Price

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月03日  in #Trader's blog #Russia #War #Ukraine #Gold Price #Cu
In this blog post I'm going to reproduce a small part of my in depth analysis over Ukraine crisis and what it means to the market. The whole analysis should be published in form of an article during this week, right now my article is waiting for approval, but meanwhile we can look at what an Russian invasion in Ukraine means to the Gold market

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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

LOL, I'll have to confess that I'm very confused:), please translate:)

jezz avatar
jezz 2014年03月03日

First, I need to go buy some... and as they say it on TV - will be back after these messages.
What I didn't catch is the explanation of the fall of price of gold upon the invasion of Georgia. I know that you don't take out random events and put them in context to prove your theory.
But what I find intriguing in your fractal analysis is the fact that the single currency is on stage now. That could be the explanation of the same direction of gold and USD, that is abandoning the EUR. The market tends to repeat itself, but the players have changed, so not to follow each theory blindly.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

First you must understand the cycle we're in don't forget 2008 was the year of the risk aversion. Also at that point Gold has been in full development of the secular bull market without any sights of it to end, I mean everyone was bullish on gold and we got the opposite effect just because when the majority of the trading participants are u=in one side of the market usually the market goes in the opposite direction. In 1979 there where other condition and we where in another cycle. When working with correlation you must understand the cycle, otherwise it won't work.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

I know I'm giving you a simplistic view but right now I'm busy managing some big exposure, beside being long gold I also bought some yen and sold the eurusd from Friday, now back in my cave:))

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 2014年03月03日

I have some update buddy about Ukraine. The things are as follow. The markets put an hold today as tomorow will be the decisive day when invasion will or will not happen. USA has it's hands tied up. They can't enforce anything against Rusia.One of the general fromt he security commitee said it will not risk to send warships in the Black Sea since our times aren't Cold war and you can't send them there if you don't intend to use them. European politicians doesn't have much to say either. We consume Russian gas so we are vulnerable in case we opposed mighty Rusia will.

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