Amogh's Blog

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Carry trade unwinding has begun

With hawkish fed hinting more rate hikes to come this year. Investors are unwilling to take risk. Stock market is hesitant taking risk. That is reflected on carry trades and significantly on yen crosses. The most striking impact is on eur/jpy and gbp/jpy. With ECB showing no urgency is tapering or hiking rates any time soon. eur has taken a tumble taking along eur/jpy with it.
Here is the chart.
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Yen crosses on the brink of collapse amidst G7 summit

With the weekend G7 summit market sentiment is anti risk. so risk appetite is off right now. All the yen crosses are heading down. I have already made a quick profit on eur/jpy opened at 129.05 and booked profit of 40 pips at 128.65. Looking to reinstate short trade again. Here is the perfect setup for eur/jpy short trade. Chart shows it all.
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Yen crosses are moving sideways

yen crosses have been moving sideways since the non farm payroll news. Though risk is downwards, I had gone counter intuitive trade by playing long gbp/jpy with very short term trade in view. I had expected price to bounce back upto 149.50. But lets watch in days ahead. trade was initiated at 148.31 with target set at 149.50 and stop loss at 147. Here is the chart
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Yen crosses beware of falling down quickly and nastily

With global risks and uncertainty growing geo politically market is getting increasingly uneasy with risk. Risk aversion is soon to kick in with force. Right now it is like going sidways and investors and side stepping. But soon the deleveraging is due to kick in. I have already benefitted from shorting gbp/jpy this month. Here is the chart.
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Yen Crosses are falling amidst the global political uncertainty

Yen crosses are falling across the board amidst the fear of North Korea tensions and other geopolitical uncertainties. I profited from gbp/jpy and eur/jpy. And still have short positions held at this point. Example of eur/jpy is short at 132.19 with stop loss at 133 and take profit at 131.. Here is the chart.
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Carry trade is back with risk on scenario.

Carry trade is back with risk on scenario. Currently market is returning with risk appetite after the hurricane arma has passed by and North Korea tensions have eased temporarily. I have gone long gbp/jpy at 145.44 with profit limit at 147 here is the chart. so far the trade is in profit
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Watching close eyes on yen crosses

Right now there is some kind of lull in market. Yen crosses are looking for direction. I guess, after non farm payroll numbers it will be significant. But there is a resistance forming. In case of usd/jpy it is right now at 113.50. once this resistance is broken the price will shoot up. For gbp/jpy the resistance is at 146.90. Right now waiting for the significant direction in yen crosses.
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Yen crosses are on the verge of breaking even higher.

yen crosses are on the verge of breaking even higher. they are at the top range of the price. If the resistance now is broken to the higher side. The price will race to cover even higher grounds. Eur/Jpy being the most likely one to break. Also other crosses like aud/jpy and usd./jpy looks strong. Got to keep eyes on the early opening of Japanese stock market.
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Yen Crosses are moving sideways - looking for direction

Yen Crosses are moving sideways - looking for direction for now. British Pound seems to have resumed its weaknesses. Among all the crosses (yen) gbp/jpy is the weakest one. However gbp/jpy is the most moving long legged pair in fx. Take a look at the chart.
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Yen Crosses rally seems to have stalled and making their way downwards

Yen Crosses rally seems to have stalled and making their way downwards immediately after BOE governor speech yesterday. British Pound is the biggest loser. Both gbp/usd and gbp/jpy took a heavy beating. I have short yen crosses opened now. Here is the chart of gbp/jpy.
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