doctortyby's Blog

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Risk-Off sentiment ahead of the NFP on Friday

It's the fifth day in a row for the fall of the Eur/Usd pair with 70 pips lost just in the last 24 Hours (from the time of this post).
Eur/Usd has felt the impact of both the NFP pre-news speculation and the lower than expected data from the CPI Flash Estimate y/y (0.2% vs. 0.4% expected) and the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (0.9% vs. 1.0% the forecast).
The "Smart Money" have moved from the Risk On currencies (Eur, Gbp, Nzd, Aud) to the safe heaven assets (Gold, Jpy, Usd). It's interesting that …
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September 1st - Change of sentiment

Greetings,
Morgan Stanley, Eur/Usd short position from 1.3620 has TP @ 1.31, and SL @ 1.3360.
Long on the USD/JPY until 106 level from 102.50 with a Stop @ 102.60.
GBP/JPY Buy Limit Order @ 172.00, TP @ 180 and SL @ 169.40.
Several Major Banks (Credit Agricole, Citi Bank, UBS, RBS) still wait for a pullback in the EUR/USD to re-enter short from 1.33.
Barclays still holds on the Eur/USd Short Postion until TP under 1.29, possible pullback from 1.31
The Sentiment is Risk ON, especially with all…
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8th of August - Risk Adversion

Today, the geopolitical headlines have generated risk adversion on the market as:
- stocks have hit 4 months low,
- gold has hit 3 weeks high,
- Usd/Jpy has made a false breakout at 102 Level and it is waating for the BOJ Monetary Policy Decision and Statement together with the Press Conference from Governor Kuroda tomorrow morning.
- ECB has dissapointed again investors with no change in the Interest Rate and a press conference with no surprises.
- AUD was one of the Market Movers after the str…
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1st of August - Retail Traders Positioning - EUR/USD and Gold

1st of August - After the dissapointing Market Impact of the US Non Farm Employment Change (NFP) and Unemployment Rate.
The Fear and Greed Index from CNN Money stands today (at the last close) at 5 Points and indicates Extreme Fear.
Historically this is the lowest level since the second half of 2012.
Previous close has been 10 Points (Extreme Fear), 1 Week Ago - 34 Points (Fear), 1 Month Ago - 87 Points (Extreme Greed) and 1 year Ago - 68 Points (Greed)
All the 7 Fear and Greed Indicators that C…
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Order Flow Book Analysis and Webinar

Hello fellow traders,
  • OPEN POSITIONS Ratios:
  1. GBP/USD - 69% Bearish Open Positions
  2. EUR/USD - 62% Bullish Open Positions
  3. GOLD - 63% Bullish Open Positions
  4. USD/JPY - 75% Bullish Open Positions
  5. EUR/JPY - 62% Bullish Open Positions
  6. AUD/USD - 52% Bearish Open Positions

[list][/list]…
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Risk Off Sentiment - Israeli Gaza Operation + Plain Crash UKR

BREAKING NEWS: A large IDF force has just launched a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. A new phase of Operation Protective Edge has begun. (source IDF - Israel)
Obama warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that the United States and its allies are prepared to impose additional sanctions on Moscow if it does not change course in Ukraine. The Malaysian Airlines Plain Crash in Ukraine adds up to the Uncertainty.
Risk Off Sentiment on the Market and best Pairs to trade: Eur/Jpy, Usd/J…
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Order Flow Book Info - Webinar at 17:00GMT Tomorrow

Greetings dear traders,
  • Fundamentals + Market Talk:

  1. - French Prime Minister says Euro is Overvalued,
  2. - GBP/USD has posted a new high Today at 1.7160, highest level since Tuesday 21st of October 2008 (the beginning of the crisis), the highest level in 1474 Sessions (Days)
  3. - Barclays lowers the 2nd Quarter US tracking GDP estimate to 2.8% from 2.9%,
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Order Flow Book Info - Webinar LIVE in 30 minutes

Greetings fellows,
Open Positions Ratios from Last Evening - Updates in the Webinar at 13:00 GMT
GBP/USD - 68% Bearish Open Positions

EUR/USD - 51% Bullish
Open Positions
GOLD - 58% Bullish
Open Positions
USD/JPY - 69% Bullish Open Positions
OPEN ORDERS from last evening - Updates in the Webinar at 13:00 GMT
Order Flow Book - OFB - USD/JPY - SELL STOP Orders - at101.50 the range to 101.00 with Supply almost the same as the Demand
Order Flow Book - OFB - USD/JPY - Buy Stop Orders at 101.7…
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Order Flow Book Info - Webinars at 16:30GMT Every Day

Greetings dear traders,
  • Order Flow Book - OFB - USD/JPY - Buy Stops SLs above 102.40- 102.50 with Strong Supply, and above 102.80, Largest Supply at 103.00 Level
  • Order Flow Book - OFB - USD/JPY - Strongest Demand at 101.90- 101.50, with Sell Stops SLs, under 101.70 and 101.50

  • Order Flow Book - OFB - GBP/USD - Buy Stops SLs at 1.7050,1.7070 and above 1.71
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Polinka avatar
Polinka 30 Aug.

good luck!

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Pre FOMC - Order Flow Book Webinar at 17:00 GMT

Greetings dear traders,
News Feed ahead of the FOMC Statement and Press Conference Today show:
- Schroders– 1st BOE Rate Hike in Feb 2105 vs Prev. Aug 2015- BOEWeale – BOE to raise rates faster than markets anticipate. (Forecasts are for November 2014)
- GBP –bids at 1.6920 (unconfirmed). SLs (Sell Stop Orders) at 1.6935 alreadytriggered.- FED GovBrainard won’t submit proj at June FOMC meeting, acc. To an unnamed FEDOfficial.
- EUR/USD Option Expiring at 10 AM NY CUT - 1 Billion at 1.357
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