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The end of the GBPJPY triangle consolidation

Tom Posted 27 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
GBPJPY has been correcting since since 20 November. I suppose that consolidation has ended at 185.
That correction was a 4th wave of the Minuette degree in a 5th (v) wave of the Minute, so a 5th Minuette is coming.
As you can see on the next chart, the 4th wave is triangle. Market usually rapidly turns over after triangles.
I thin GBPJPY will strongly rise up on the release of CPI data next day, maybe +200 point, but that won't be the end. The target of the 5th Minuette is a level from 186.5 t…
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USDRUB 60?

Tom Posted 26 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
Курс 60. Может ли такое быть в ближайшее время?
В связи с глубокой локальной коррекцией появился один безрадостный для россиян сценарий. Называется он удлинение первой.
По этому сценарию, недавно завершившаяся коррекция - вторая волна (ii Minute), после которой следует еще два импульса, цель последнего - 60+.Предпосылок для такого сценария несколько:
-вероятность масштабного вторжения в Украину, хотя в этом случае, курс улетит за 150;
-продолжение финансирования боевиков и как результат новые са…
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verindur 28 Nov.

Over-ambitious but possible.

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USDJPY update

Tom Posted 25 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
This post is an update of the previous with bullish short-term scenario. I suggested an incomplete impulsive wave on USDJPY, which is going to rise up to 120 or higher. In my opinion that scenario is correct and current movements proves that.
We have the IV Micro wave completed and the V developping.
As you can see on the chart 3rd wave of the V is developping now. That wave can grow even to 121. I suppose it will get 120-121 level this week.
All Jenish pairs are extremly bullish now, there is a…
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USDJPY last impulses

Tom Posted 21 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
USDJPY is clos to it's mid-term top. Today's correction from 119 to 117.30 was IV wave of the Micro degree. I think it has ended so the pair will grow next week and the V wave of MivroCycle will rise up to 119.5-120.5 or maybe a little bit higher. Then we'll see another short-term correction and a final impulse to 121-122, a mid-term downside conoslidation (a wave Minor 4) will start from that level. I expect it will take 2-4 months, no more.
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EURo/USD short term elliott wave analysis

Tom Posted 19 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
The Euro/USD pair was in an irregular flat pattern from 25 October to 7 November. A third (C) wave of that pattern is always impulsive. Market usually rapidly reverses after irregular flats. So I think that euro is going to grow in next 16-24 weeks (weekly cycle of USD). Another indicator of a coming bullish trend is sentiment. As I wrote in the previous post there were 98% of bears on 9 November.
I think we will see euro/usd above 1.4 next year.
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verindur 20 Nov.

Thank You. I am after EURUSD - Long : )))))))))))

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EURo short term cycle analysis

Tom Posted 18 Nov.  in #Trader's blog
This review is short-term EURUSD cycle analysis.
USD trade cycle takes from 18 to 28 days and 23 days an average, so it has a 10-day reversal windows.
The previous low (top on euro) was on October 15. The pair is in reversal window since November 10 and it's going to show next top until November 28.
It's possible that top (low on dollar) was on November 17, but I don't thik so, because euro's sentiment is too bearish last too weeks. We have about 98% of bears on November 9, so in my opinion the …
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RUBle's last impulse

Tom Posted 15 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Russia #Ruble #Usdrub
Hello everyone!
The fundamental reason of russian ruble's weakening is foreign currency supply decline in Russia. That has two roots. The first on is that russian banks cannot borrow money (usd, euro) from western banks becuse of Ukraine-related sanctions, and the second is crude oil price falling.
If the second one could be improved by market, the only way to fix first troube is to return Crimea and go away from eastern Ukraine. I don't think that Putin will do it, so USDRUB is very bulish on l…
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EURo is close to the bottom

Tom Posted 5 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Euro #Eurusd #Eurodollar
Hello everyone!
This is my short report, based on wave, cycle and sentiment analysis.
At first we should look at the wave count chart. Eurousd is in the wide triangle pattern since 2008.
The current wave of that pattern is e of the minute degree. The mid- long-term target is 1.48. So it's bullish.

It's bullish on short-term too, because the U.S. dollar is going to show a weekly cycle's low (eurusd high) in 3- 4 week (look a chart).
Sentiment indicates a coming bullish trend. There are more than…
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