TarMarHanのブログ

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Gold - Technical Analysis Forecast


  • The average true range is at 13.334
  • It seems that there is a very strong support level at 1300. The price has failed to break through this level in 2018
  • The support level at 1300 will likely hold in the coming month given that the volatility in gold is moderate

  • Now using the fibonacci retracement levels i can predict that the next move will be upward.
  • I will use the 2018 highs and lows to set up the retracement levels
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TarMarHan has taken 7th place in Article Contest Feb 2018

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GBPCAD - 1 May 2018 Technical analysis forecast


  • The bollinger bands are as follows, upper band at 1.84671, middle band at 1.80848 and lower band at 1.77218.
  • The bands are upward sloping and the ATR is at 0.01393.
  • The direction on the pair is upward and i expect it to continue on that path as indicated by the lines
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GBPCHF - 1 May 2018 Forecast


  • The ATR at 0.00878 on the daily chart means volatility is relatively low.
  • However big swings can be expected in the currency pair.
  • The Fibonacci retracement levels provide an interesting perspective.
  • We use the 100% level at 1.3494 and the 0% level at 1.22202. The 50% level will be at 1.28561
  • The 50% level is an interesting support level and the price recently bounced off this level.
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EURPLN - 1 May 2018 Technical Analysis Forecast


  • The bollinger bands are widening signalling increased volatility
  • This can be substantiated by the increase in the ATR to a reading of 0.0202

  • The fibonacci retracement levels have been drawn from a high of 4.33182 in September 2017 and a low of 4.12747 in February 2018
  • The 50% level at 4.22965 will be an important resistance point in the period under consideration.
  • The price is likely to close below this point
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EURGBP - 1 May 2018 Technical Forecast


  • The EURGBP has been trading in a range in 2018 and shown in the chart above.
  • The upper bound of the range is at 0.8933 and the lower bound at 0.8708.
  • In the year the price has not closed above or below these levels.
  • I expect the range bound nature of the currency pair to continue
  • Using the range boundaries to draw up the fibonacci retracement levels will come up with the chart above.
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EURCAD - 1 May 2018 Technical Analysis Forecast


  • In the second have of 2017 the pair seemed to be trading in a range with the lower bound at 1.4468 and the upper bound at 1.5239.
  • A break above the upper limit in January 2018 led to a bullish rally in the pair as highlighted by the channel.

  • The 2018 high is at 1.61215 and the 2018 low is at 1.48153
  • It is highly unlikely that we are going to see a reversal of the bullish trend in the coming month
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EURAUD - 1 May 2018 Technical Analysis Forecast

Chart 1
  • Chart 1 above shows the bollinger bands on the daily chart set at 1.5869 for the upper band, 1.5717 and 1.5576 for the middle and lower band respectively
  • The huge gap between the lower and upper band shows that the pair has been trading in a wide range.
  • The average true range is at 0.0109 implying very low volatility
Chart 2
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Trade setup on the EURUSD

  • In Forex trading patience is a virtue. As a trader you have to wait for the perfect opportunity to enter or exit a trade, as this is usually the difference between success and failure.
  • I choose to use the 4 hour time frame as it eliminates most of the noise that we see in trading.
  • The momentum indicators can tell us where the market is going.
  • With the CCI at 119 and the stochastic indicator above 80 then it may be a bullish indicator
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Weekend review


A great week ahead for all the news traders. Three central bank monetary policy statements to look out for in the coming week. The BoC on Wednesday has the potential to surprise the market with a 0.25% rate hike. Otherwise no changes in monetary policy stance is expected this week.
The Non Farm Payroll will round up the central bank dominated week. The expectation is 205k jobs added and we may see the unemployment rate tick lower to 4%. A confirmation of these numbers will increase the likelih…
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