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DimaBLR predicted bullish impact of Interest rate decision in the Fundamental analysis Contest

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

Olkiss70 predicted bearish impact of Interest rate decision in the Fundamental analysis Contest

После решения о сокращении добычи нефти курс рубля укрепился, поэтому ЦБР не будет снижать ставку. Поднятие ставки тоже маловероятно, поскольку она составляет 10% при годовой инфляции 5.8%, т.е. реальная процентная ставка - самая высокая в мире среди стран G20. Такая высокая реальная ставка противодействует оттоку капитала и привлекает горячие деньги, которые гонятся за высокими доходностями.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bullish impact of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. Since sept. 2016 we have a nice streak of recovery and reads above 50. A little weaker than last 51.8 read can appear, yet above 50, so correctional move from downward trend is likely.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bullish impact of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Another reason for a correction on this pair in the morning.Strong German economy and depreciated EURO helps producers to keep this read in 54-55 range since sept. 2016. Another strong read is likely probably around 55, even beating the estimate of 54.8, as we have EURO depreciating and monetary policy stimulus helping Germany still. Trend will be still downward, yet bullish correction is very likely.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bullish impact of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Eurozone PMI is the last in the streak of data coming from EU. Likely to be boosted by the cheap EURO and stimulus in monetary policy, it will probably move EURUSD to the upside, finishing the morning correctional movement on the pair. Since sept. 2016 We have a spike up starting from 51.7. Read is above 50, indicating growth, since jul. 2013. EURUSD was moving sideways tonight, indicating some data might be needed for next mover, so this streak of EURO data is likely to initiate the profit taking. General trend will stay downward though.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bullish impact of Durable Goods Orders in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items. It generally tends to go up and down, fluctuating a lot. As the spike down occured lately, a strong read is now likely. Comes together with jobless claims - also important for USD and also strong as we know that labor market in the US is on a healthy growth pace.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bearish impact of Gross Domestic Product in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Since it is Q3 GDP, a rebound from the low of -0.2% in Q2 is almost certain. With overbought USD and selloff in MXN, it also deserves some correction- as MXN still stays in all time lows. Notably, Mexico raised rates to over 5% already and their economy is growing and healthy.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bearish impact of Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. Read could be a little lower than previous - we had a big spike up recently. As the appreciation of USD was massive, profit taking should happen.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bearish impact of New Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated. It is reported after, so less impact will be seen. Also, as there was an increase in existing home sales, New Home sales are mostly priced in. It is released together with Michigan University Consumer Expectations. Those spiked up heavily recently, therefore a little lower read is likely this time.

barhol liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

arjaq predicted bullish impact of FOMC Minutes in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Unless market moves utterly technical in the short term again, minutes will likely stragthen USD. Rate hike is on the board and it is reinforced by the pro- growth politics of the new President. In Japan, there is still easing, QQE and QE on the board.