A professional trader will look at just about everything that can give him a statistical edge to make a profitable trade. Even myself as a believer and practitioner of market cycles I'm looking for cycles that can be found from presidential election, Inflation figures, Unemployment figures and even the Olympic Games if there is a statistical evidence that you can make a buck from it than I'll trade it.
According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the average rate of return of the DJIA was 4% from the opening to closing the Olympics Games, with positive returns 68% of the time.
The Bottom line is that history can be a guide in forecasting the markets and the history of Olympics Games suggest that markets are performing quite well during this time of the year, so there is no surprise we have seen an impressive recovery from this correction we have just saw in the equity markets. Actually the Olympics Games have just predicted the recent swing low in equity markets see Figure 1.
The current riots in Ukraine is not just about joining the EU zone but it's also about the high level of corruption and nepotism in the whole country that has been taken over by the oligarchs who are only watching for their self interest. It seems Russia has learned from the 1980's boycott and that's the reason why they didn't demand action in Ukraine before the Olympics.
Now please let me blow your mind: since 1980 Olympics Games and 2014 Sochi Games there is a 34 year difference. "PI" the magic number is the answer to the meaning of this year, no surprise here, right?
The current turmoil in Ukraine has not avoided the currency market, the fear of civil unrest has sent Ukraine’s currency Hryvnia in a self of (see Figure 2) as majority of peoples were buying the dollar to protect their wealth. This only shows us that confidence in government is collapsing and is reflected in the currency market as well.
Ukraine can definitely split in two parts East vs West which is a catastrophic event for sure as Russia can easily justify the fact that the East was once part of Russia and that the people there even speak Russian. There are many possible scenario that can play out for sure, I'm not God to know how the current turmoil in Ukraine will unfold but I'm neither ignorant not to acknowledge some facts that can help me see the light.
Is this the return of the Cold War? That remains to be seen.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
PS: It seems I'm becoming an Expert in Geopolitical Events not just in trading)). If anyone wants me as a political adviser I'm open at discussions, but I have to warn you I don't came cheap)
According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the average rate of return of the DJIA was 4% from the opening to closing the Olympics Games, with positive returns 68% of the time.
The Bottom line is that history can be a guide in forecasting the markets and the history of Olympics Games suggest that markets are performing quite well during this time of the year, so there is no surprise we have seen an impressive recovery from this correction we have just saw in the equity markets. Actually the Olympics Games have just predicted the recent swing low in equity markets see Figure 1.
- Figure 1. DJIA Daily Chart.
1980 Moscow Olympic game, Russia invaded Afghanistan. 2014 Sochi Olympic game,
Ukraine next? I see patterns everywhere
The current developments in Ukraine is becoming a major geopolitical event were the country is torn by war between two gangs of oligarchs. Nothing good for the peoples will happen. There is no going back to a normal life in Ukraine. Either Yanukovych resigns, or there will be civil war. Look at the Arab Spring is a pattern, your only job is to connect the dots and see the light.Ukraine next? I see patterns everywhere
The current riots in Ukraine is not just about joining the EU zone but it's also about the high level of corruption and nepotism in the whole country that has been taken over by the oligarchs who are only watching for their self interest. It seems Russia has learned from the 1980's boycott and that's the reason why they didn't demand action in Ukraine before the Olympics.
Now please let me blow your mind: since 1980 Olympics Games and 2014 Sochi Games there is a 34 year difference. "PI" the magic number is the answer to the meaning of this year, no surprise here, right?
- PI=3,141;
- Multiply (Pi)*1000=3141;
- 3141 days equal 8.6 year;
- 8.6 years * 4 equal 34,4 years which brings us to our 34 years from the 1980 Olympic games which is 2014;
- We have 4 cycles of 8.6 years from the 1980 event ;
The current turmoil in Ukraine has not avoided the currency market, the fear of civil unrest has sent Ukraine’s currency Hryvnia in a self of (see Figure 2) as majority of peoples were buying the dollar to protect their wealth. This only shows us that confidence in government is collapsing and is reflected in the currency market as well.
- Figure 2. Ukraine's currency Hryvnia.
Ukraine can definitely split in two parts East vs West which is a catastrophic event for sure as Russia can easily justify the fact that the East was once part of Russia and that the people there even speak Russian. There are many possible scenario that can play out for sure, I'm not God to know how the current turmoil in Ukraine will unfold but I'm neither ignorant not to acknowledge some facts that can help me see the light.
Is this the return of the Cold War? That remains to be seen.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
PS: It seems I'm becoming an Expert in Geopolitical Events not just in trading)). If anyone wants me as a political adviser I'm open at discussions, but I have to warn you I don't came cheap)