I'm not having quite a good week in the Trader Contest as my last few trades have been eating up all my previous profits, so right now my account balance is somewhere around BE. My most unsuccessful trade so far was going short EUR/USD (see Figure 1). I entered short because both the technical and fundamental aligned and favored a short position at least that was my reasoning:

  1. Technicals: We had a major false breakout above the trend line that connects the highs from 2008 and 2011, we couldn't stay above it and sold off quite hard after the breakout. And also on the 1h chart I entered short after we hit resistance. You can find more about my EUR/USD view by going here: EUR/USD Long Term View
  2. Fundamentals: We saw some big improvements in the US labor market which signaled that the weather effect has fade away and US economy is picking up. Fed rhetoric is not extremely dovish and although the "6 months timeline" to raise interest rates after QE program ends is being dismissed by the FED. I find this just a strategy move from their part, and I'm still expecting the interest rates to go up. On the other hand we had ECB which for the first time is publicly speaking about the possibility to do QE if inflation doesn't pick up. If we look at the recent inflation figure that came out this week, we can still see a deterioration in the inflation numbers which can trigger ECB to take action sooner than expected.

Figure 1. EUR/USD 1H Chart

Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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