I've posted in my blog this analysis on USD/CHF that I'm going to reproduce here more than 5 months ago, you can find the original post here: USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range.

"Since over 3 years USD/CHF has been trading in a wide range like many other CHF pairs. We have established between 0.9970 resistance level and 0.8600 support level an consolidation zone which based on Elliott Wave we can count only 4 waves which suggest that we still have to make another leg to the upside to complete the five wave sequence and before to break out of this consolidation zone. We have in total an 1400 pip range zone.

Figure 1 shows us how the wave count should look like and where each wave starts and how each wave structure looks like
.

Figure 1. USD/CHF Weekly Chart with Elliott Wave count.


In Figure 2 we have the USD/CHF daily chart and the structure of wave D which is forming an downward channel. Based on Elliott Wave we're in the final stage of this move and we only need a final spike down into 0.8600 before to complete the five wave sequence and to complete wave D of this wide consolidation zone. After we complete this decline we should look for momentum to start picking up and move to the upside.


Figure 2. USD/CHF Daily Chart. Elliot Wave count.


After we'll get the final spike lower and hopefully we should get a reversal we don't have many big resistance level until or target at around the round number 0.8900."

Five months later here we are 1000 pips higher and closer to hit our ultimate target at 0.9970.

The broad base dollar strength across the board has manage to change the bearish sentiment on this pair and since beginning of this summer USD/CHF has been trading in an steady bullish trend. Based on Elliott Wave count (see Figure 3) we still have much to go to the upside before to complete a five wave sequence. We have just completed wave III and wave IV is ready to develop a corrective phase before another upward leg to take place and complete the five wave sequence.

Figure 3. USD/CHF Daily Chart. Elliott Wave count.


Beside this it seems that EUR/JPY price action from 2012-2013 is leading the way up for USD/CHF, basically this is a fractal (see Figure 4)

Figure 4. EUR/JPY - USD/CHF Fractal.


Best Regards,
Daytrader21
الترجمة الى الانجليزية اظهار الاصلي