A sharp rise, over a short period of time, in EUR/USD above 1.25 would test the ECB’s ‘pain threshold’. However, this is unlikely in the absence of any disorderly Eurozone bond market moves or an externally driven downturn in the global risk environment. The EUR could gain more ground before it becomes a cause for concern for the ECB.
The next major catalyst for a move higher will be when markets position for higher ECB deposit rates which could see EUR/USD rallying to 1.25 by summer 2018.

For the immediate term, my take is for the EUR/USD to ding-dong between 1.190 to 1.208
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