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Yesterday was the 19th annual Sohn Investment Conference where hundreds of investors are gathering at the most awaited HF conference of the year. The only reason I'm mentioning this is because one of the most successful hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones spoke there, and give his macro view on the markets.
This conference has been a great place for sharing some trading ideas and a great platform for sharing new trading ideas as well, and most often this ideas where market movers. You have to take in consideration that PT Jones is one of the best macro guy in this business, and I think you will be fool to ignore his view. He made interesting comments about the current lack of volatility and he also showed he still hasn't lost its sense of humor.
If he is saying: "Macro trading has probably been as difficult as I have ever seen it in my career." than who are we to disagree with him, after all he is the macro king guy. He doesn't expect volatility to pick up and sees more dull action:"What we desperately need is a macro doctor to prescribe central bank Viagra because it's going to continue to be dull." and this falls in line with my own view that I've expressed in my latest article and where I rest my case about why the new US dollar bull trend will start in 2015 with the pick up in volatility, you can read it here: The Case For a Multi-Year USD Bullish Trend
Wait until you see the whites of the eyes before you sell fixed-income. PT Jones message to bond bears
He also commented the latest NFP figures, saying "Friday was one of the greatest days in macro trading with strongest economic data,strong payrolls data, everything you wanted for fixed income to get killed."
But although everything was aligned "for fixed income to get killed", bonds closed up on the day. If you want to understand the macro play and the fundamentals next part is crucial to understand and the reason why market behave they way they do. PT Jones said that "usually what's obvious in macro is obviously wrong," proving the point that what matters is the unknown: "A lot of times you look at the fundamentals and they show you one hand... but it reality there are two hands." I think you have seen this many times market selling off on good news or going up on bad data, but now you have some kind of explanation of this behaviour.
The last thing I want to add is the fact that I'm very glad to hear that PT Jones has the same view as mine when it comes to UK economy as he predicted UK first rate hike in December 2014. I've been speaking about the fact that BOE is among the first major CB that will be hiking rates from late last year and beginning of this year, you can find those evidence all over my blog. Paul Tudor Jones says first implied rate hike in US rates in July 2015 and June 2016 for Europe. You wouldn’t want to be short bonds until 3 months before each.
I hope you find this information helpful and I also hope it will make to take better decision in your trading activities.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
