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There is a technical setup in Gold I've been keeping a close eye on for the last few years. Monitoring the wave structure trying to catch a good level to go long.
According to the wave count in Gold, the bottom has already taken place on Nov 5th, 2014 @ 1130.
Since then the price has seen a bullish move and a deep retracement.
The charts below show the setup and wave counts.
Figure 1 - XAUUSD Daily holding it's trendline and key 88.6% Fib Level
Figure 2 - XAUUSD Daily Wave Count
The Daily Count here shows the cycle from Nov 5 lows, has already done a ABC zig zag to highs at 1301 which marks wave (A). At which point it did a deep retracement - typical of the first bullish structure in a bearish trend. This is often referred to as a "Double bottom". March 17 marked the (B) wave at 1142 lows. From there we've once again seen some upside in wave A of (C). It's reached a high of 1231 before once again pulling back in wave B of (C). It is now at the area where we should see the start of Wave C of (C).
Figure 3 - XAUUSD Daily Wave Count as a non corrective structure
My wave counts usually tend to be corrective, as I believe that is the cycle of the market we are currently in. But to provide some perspective, as most traders are more familiar with the 12345 count. This is what the structure would like that. As you can see, this signals wave 3 of (3) is about to start - precisely the wave that all traders are continuously seeking.
Figure 4 - Gold Correlation with Silver
The above chart is an overlay of Gold and Silver. It's easy to see that although the two are correlated, Silver's highs and lowns don't line up to Gold. However the structure may be different, it also is pointing to the same thing, which can be seen in the next chart.
Figure 5 - XAGUSD Daily Wave Count
The bottom in Silver came after Gold, On Nov 30. As per the Wave count, it did the first leg up to (A) which completed in around 18.50 in the third week of Jan. The key difference here, is that Silver has taken out it's March 10 low at 15.25 marked wave A. Which in turn shows that the pair has done a zig zag, or a double correction in wave (B) depending on how you count the structure.
The bottom line here is that there is an attractive swing trade opportunity here, to buy Silver with stops below the Nov 30 low of 14.40 and to buy Gold with stops below either the (B) wave low or Nov 5th low. With a target of a higher high in both cases above wave (A).
An excellent Risk to Reward trade that doesn't come along too often!
