The market consensus for today's release is that the employment will increase another 151K workers which is still a modest raise after last month worst than expected data.

Last two month's release where very bad for the US job market with a modest 113k jobs created in January and a very bad number of only 75k jobs created in December.

The only steady numbers is the unemployment rate which is expected to decrease again by 0.1% from 6.6% to 6.5%.

In Figure 1 you can observe how volatile the Non Farm Payrolls where over the past few months, and particularly over the last two months the numbers have been distorted by the unusual bad cold whether.

Recently Fed's Lockhart have been sending some sign of concern saying:" If NFP were to come in below 100K, that would be a concern, but says personally he doesn’t think would over-react to another weak jobs number" and it blamed it to the whether.
  • Figure 1. Unemployment Rate and NFP.
My personal opinion is that no matter what the number they won't influence the tapering process which is on an autopilot going forward gradual with $10B/meeting. You should watch the unemployment rate which currently is much more important as if it drops below 6.5%. Statistically speaking we have seen that as the unemployment rate decreases at some point wages will begin to pick up as well and this should trigger some action from Fed to tame down inflation and we should see Fed raising interest rates which should help boost the dollar.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
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