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US NON FARM PAYROLL NUMBERS
The NFP July headline number rose +209k, a small miss from the expected +233k, but importantly, it was the sixth consecutive monthly gain north of that psychological +200k print (the private payrolls miss was a tad larger at +198k versus +230k). The unemployment rate backed up a tick to +6.2% because of a larger rise in the labor force than the employment level. Average hourly earnings were nearly flat, while the workweek held steady at 34.5 hours.
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK
Jobs data (Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) and central bank rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) continue to dominate the fundamental landscape.
1) The RBA will kick-start the rate announcements off next Tuesday. The market does not expect any change, but the "long" carry-trade investors are wary of Governor Glenn Stevens' constant efforts to jawbone the AUD lower.
2) Expect another unchanged monetary policy announcement from the BoE when its two-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting concludes next Thursday.
3) The ECB is expected to remain on hold with rates and other policy action at its August 7 meeting. President Mario Draghi is likely to emphasize the long-term refinancing operation that will start in September, and the completion of the bank's asset-quality review in October. In respect to inflation, he is likely to downplay the Eurozone's recent drop to +0.4% in July from +0.5% in June, while highlighting lower energy prices and higher core inflation.
The NFP July headline number rose +209k, a small miss from the expected +233k, but importantly, it was the sixth consecutive monthly gain north of that psychological +200k print (the private payrolls miss was a tad larger at +198k versus +230k). The unemployment rate backed up a tick to +6.2% because of a larger rise in the labor force than the employment level. Average hourly earnings were nearly flat, while the workweek held steady at 34.5 hours.
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK
Jobs data (Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) and central bank rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) continue to dominate the fundamental landscape.
1) The RBA will kick-start the rate announcements off next Tuesday. The market does not expect any change, but the "long" carry-trade investors are wary of Governor Glenn Stevens' constant efforts to jawbone the AUD lower.
2) Expect another unchanged monetary policy announcement from the BoE when its two-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting concludes next Thursday.
3) The ECB is expected to remain on hold with rates and other policy action at its August 7 meeting. President Mario Draghi is likely to emphasize the long-term refinancing operation that will start in September, and the completion of the bank's asset-quality review in October. In respect to inflation, he is likely to downplay the Eurozone's recent drop to +0.4% in July from +0.5% in June, while highlighting lower energy prices and higher core inflation.
