Since the early beginning of 2012 the Canadian dollar has been in firm grips of bears – over the last two and half years it had shed 18% of its value against USD. Apparently the trend is about to change – the main fundamental reason, justifying this trend reversal, is setting in before our eyes. The main reason behind this rather optimistic statement seems to be obvious – CAD is the commodity currency that is highly correlated with the price of oil. The latter, falling rather sharply for the last months, have been exerting downward pressure on the loony. At this moment it seems that oil prices are beginning to bottom out. Although this process might take some time, the downside potential seems to be exhausted along with the exogenous force, defining the Canadian dollar exchange rate.
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