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Non-Farm Employment Change estimate by banks (November 2013):
Actual: 203K -- Majority of these banks forecast were way off, wonder how many traders follow their forecast and trade based on these info.
Here is something I read while surfing the web, quite astonishing. I was thinking that novice retail traders are worst forecaster, but these guys are way ahead.
1) Ben Bernanke, 10th January 2008 - "The Federal Reserve is currently not forecasting a recession."
[color=#000000]A few months later, United States entered one of the worst recessions ever.
2) David Lereah (US economist), 12th August 2005: "I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year."
[color=#0000ff][color=#000000]Real Estate prices fell sharper between 2006 and 2008 than during the Great Depression.
[/color]
3) Joseph Cassano (Head of Financial Products at AIG), 2007: "It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions."
The following year, AIG was rescued by the government after huge losses. Especially on CDS positions...
4)Franklin Raines (CEO of Fannie Mae), 10th June 2004: "These supbrime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent."
The U.S. government intervened in 2008 to rescue Fannie Mae – in big trouble during the subprime crisis.[/color][/color]
- HSBC 165K
- Goldman Sachs 175K
- Bank of America 175K
- JP Morgan 180K
- Citigroup 180K
- Deutsche Bank 185K
- UBS 190K
- Barclays 200K
Actual: 203K -- Majority of these banks forecast were way off, wonder how many traders follow their forecast and trade based on these info.
Here is something I read while surfing the web, quite astonishing. I was thinking that novice retail traders are worst forecaster, but these guys are way ahead.
1) Ben Bernanke, 10th January 2008 - "The Federal Reserve is currently not forecasting a recession."
[color=#000000]A few months later, United States entered one of the worst recessions ever.
2) David Lereah (US economist), 12th August 2005: "I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year."
[color=#0000ff][color=#000000]Real Estate prices fell sharper between 2006 and 2008 than during the Great Depression.
[/color]
3) Joseph Cassano (Head of Financial Products at AIG), 2007: "It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions."
The following year, AIG was rescued by the government after huge losses. Especially on CDS positions...
4)Franklin Raines (CEO of Fannie Mae), 10th June 2004: "These supbrime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent."
The U.S. government intervened in 2008 to rescue Fannie Mae – in big trouble during the subprime crisis.[/color][/color]
