The market has been exceptionally active since beginning of the year. This higher volatility is not exclusively showing up only on the FX market as other assets classes are exhibiting the same kind of volatility. This higher volatility are having an impact on how the market interprets the economic data as they become more important and the market more sensitive to any deviation from market forecasts.

Even thought NFP is an important market mover this volatility environment makes it even more important and can lead to some big whipsaws in the short term.

Figure 1. US dollar and NFP's release


Even though the US labor market has been on a strong recovery path we can see from Figure 1 that during the last few NFP releases the dollar has topped right after the news. With the NFP coming out better than expect first reaction was positive for the dollar than it retraced all the gains and beyond before resuming the bullish trend.

When it comes top FED tightening cycles as per Yellen's comments the market should expect the first rate hike on the April meeting, as the unemployment rate has already suppressed what the Fed targets where for the recovery in this regard the market will pay more attention to the details like the participation rate and wedge growth which stimulates inflation.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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