I had a small loss in the USD/JPY today of about 25 pips. Later in the day as the Euro reached new multi-day highs I placed my pending short at 1.1393. This was soon triggered and during the same minute the single currency crashed to 1.1340.

I didn't exit my trades, I still have short EUR/USD and EUR/HKD. I keep trying to enter on the short side. I think the market continues to underestimate the odds for a Greek default and exit from the Euro. The general thinking seems to be that a deal will somehow be found. But the Greek government is still defiant and I want to be positioned accordingly.

I would place the odds for a Greek default above 50 percent...maybe as high as 70%. Not sure if that will entail an exit from the Euro. If it does, the EUR/USD could fall hundreds of pips.

The next weekend may be the ''final'' deadline, although they were saying that about the last weekend as well
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