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U.S. dollar index at the end of the week reached their lowest level since the end of June (95,40). Increased uncertainty in global markets lowers expectations of increase in the Federal funds rate at its meeting on 17 September. In addition, another argument has become a bit more dovish fed minutes and a weak inflation data, released last week. Currently, the futures market assesses the probability of improvement in September as it is only 24%.
In my opinion, the first rate increase to 0.5% happen in September. To unwanted developments in the world economy the fed will respond to the change of pace of rate increases, rather than the date of the first step.
The dollar really have the space for a corrective decline in the coming days. However, I believe that in anticipation of the NFP on 4 September, the bulls will return to the dollar, realizing that nothing is more stable than the U.S. economy in the world at the moment, no.
Next week the economic calendar in the U.S. is rich in events of moderate importance. Note the second estimate GDP Wednesday: it is possible that the rate of +2.3 percent will be revised upward. In addition, on Thursday starts the famous Symposium at Jackson hole. It was here in August 2010, the then fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the launch of the QE2 program. This year, the current head of the fed Janet Yellen to the event will not come, but we definitely get the "from the field" important comments about the state of the world economy and the behavior of Central Banks.
In my opinion, the first rate increase to 0.5% happen in September. To unwanted developments in the world economy the fed will respond to the change of pace of rate increases, rather than the date of the first step.
The dollar really have the space for a corrective decline in the coming days. However, I believe that in anticipation of the NFP on 4 September, the bulls will return to the dollar, realizing that nothing is more stable than the U.S. economy in the world at the moment, no.
Next week the economic calendar in the U.S. is rich in events of moderate importance. Note the second estimate GDP Wednesday: it is possible that the rate of +2.3 percent will be revised upward. In addition, on Thursday starts the famous Symposium at Jackson hole. It was here in August 2010, the then fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the launch of the QE2 program. This year, the current head of the fed Janet Yellen to the event will not come, but we definitely get the "from the field" important comments about the state of the world economy and the behavior of Central Banks.
