This is definitely the most awaited ECB meeting since awhile. After weaker EU inflation reading, the CPI figures came in worse than expected at 4 years low, at 0.5% and is well below the ECB's 2% target. Although ECB may feel some pressure as inflation hits new lows, I'm not sure if ECB is going to easing or not as there is no clear view if they are
ready to act and tame down deflationary pressure.

ECB is pretty stationary when it comes to the perception of his monetary policy standing.

As far as currency traders are concerned, it’s going to take more than words for European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi to weaken the euro. This should be a big risk event although market expectation don't expect a rate cut you can never rule out the unexpected to happen and the market to get by surprise. Recent Reuters survey show us that 97% of the economists sees a No rate cut (see Figure 1).

  • Figure 1. Reuters Economist Poll.
Mario Draghi's rhetoric should be key during his press conference and we should look for more clues in terms of ECB's forward guidance. I really have no idea what Draghi will say so I'm on the sideline waiting for some hints and rather to react to market movements rather than anticipate them.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
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