In my blog I've only been talking about gold and you can find some of my comments and if you what my view on gold you can read here: Gold - Next Move and here Gold Outlook.

First of all I just want to make it clear this is my long term view on silver and not trying to forecast the next $1-2 move. In this regard I'm going to bring to your attention 2 long term charts to back up my bullish view on silver. First chart represents spot NY silver weekly closing price from January 1975 through April 2014 (see Figure 1).

On this chart we can observe that silver is forming a strong bullish pattern, mainly a multi-decade “cup & handle” pattern. Although over the past 15 years we have moved in a secular bull market and you may think this move has run his course, this pattern suggest that the upside move is not over as usually this secular bull market last anywhere between 25 and 30 years. But corrections are good for the market and keep the up trend healthy.

Figure 1. Spot NY Silver Weekly Closing Price.

Right now the sell of that started in 2011 from around the $50 level is forming the “handle” of this massive pattern which is just the last shake-out of weak hands before the secular bull market to resume up.

The last chart I want to bring to your attention(see Figure 2) is the silver price action from last 3 years, which is the price action structure from the 2011 sell of. This more recent price action can help us to time the market better.

We can see that lasting from October 2011 through April 2013 we have formed rectangle pattern which has already broke to the downside but as of today has failed to reach his target. If we measure that range and project the same kind of move in distance to the downside this gives as a target of $16.66.


Figure 2. Silver Weekly Chart.

But at the same time we can also detect that after we broke outside this rectangle the price action has taken the form of a descending triangle with support around the $18 level, and if we project this move to the downside we get a second target at around $13.50 level.

I'm expecting those two level to provide the bottom in silver, and if those target are meet I would definitely start accumulating some silver and try to ride the next big up leg.

Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
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