I’m studding the charts of the pair and I can’t shake the feeling, it has fallen too much. The “naked” monthly chart clearly shows that area around 105.50 was a resistance and a support on several occasions in the past 10 years or so.



Here are the some of the possible reasons why 105.50 might be the bottom (at least for now)

1. There is good chance the FOMC minutes will sound hawkish and that will ignite dollar buying.
2. Japan Central bank must start to feel uncomfortable with such yen strength and some verbal intervention might be coming.
3. The recent fall was more than 500 pips in just 2 weeks! If not a bottom, this should warrant at least a meaningful correction.
4. The pair and almost all yen crosses are severely oversold – another reason for a move higher.
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