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The EUR / USD has weakened by up to four months touched yesterday 1.1411, but maintains an upward trend, indicated by the solid support inside the Bollinger channel at 1.1306. It is nevertheless calmed the sell-off in the greenback, which has taken a bit of force against other currencies. At the moment the exchange rate is around parity at 1.1380. The positive slope of the channel suggests that the euro could again go over the dell'1,140 barrier. The recent strengthening of the cross has been mainly caused by the weakening of the greenback. For investors, there is little reason to hold dollars after Janet Yellen has poured cold water on expectations of a rate increase.
The point of view that rates may remain unchanged even in June would be supported by data on US jobs more disappointing than expected today. This could generate a new wave of sales on the US currency, leading the pair to a new high for months. The dollar still recorded its worst quarterly performance since 2010, as investors continue to bring down the forecasts for an increase in interest rates this year.
The WSJ dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.2% to 86.56, mainly because of the decline against the euro and the Swiss franc. The index has lost about 4% this quarter. Goldman Sachs remains true to its opinion that the officials of the Fed will raise rates three times this year. Goldman expects the Fed hikes rates in June, then September and December, as stated by Zach Pandl, ecomonist senior US bank. The US currency also fell against the yen, with the cross between the two currencies which lost 0.22% to 112.248. Dollar sales were however attenuated, as shown by the exchange rate against the pound and the Australian dollar. The pair gbp / usd down 0.28% to 1.4353, while the aud / usd stands at 0.7662 (-0.07%).
The point of view that rates may remain unchanged even in June would be supported by data on US jobs more disappointing than expected today. This could generate a new wave of sales on the US currency, leading the pair to a new high for months. The dollar still recorded its worst quarterly performance since 2010, as investors continue to bring down the forecasts for an increase in interest rates this year.
The WSJ dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.2% to 86.56, mainly because of the decline against the euro and the Swiss franc. The index has lost about 4% this quarter. Goldman Sachs remains true to its opinion that the officials of the Fed will raise rates three times this year. Goldman expects the Fed hikes rates in June, then September and December, as stated by Zach Pandl, ecomonist senior US bank. The US currency also fell against the yen, with the cross between the two currencies which lost 0.22% to 112.248. Dollar sales were however attenuated, as shown by the exchange rate against the pound and the Australian dollar. The pair gbp / usd down 0.28% to 1.4353, while the aud / usd stands at 0.7662 (-0.07%).
