GBP/USD traded somewhat higher during the European morning Friday, but hit resistance near the 1.4300 (R1) obstacle and the prior downside support (now turned into resistance) line, taken from the low of the 23rd of May. Then the rate retreated again. Having in mind that the rate is still trading below that line, I would consider the short-term outlook to stay cautiously negative and I would expect the forthcoming wave to be negative. A clear break below 1.4215 (S1) would confirm the case for further declines and is possible to prompt extensions towards the 1.4115 (S2) support hurdle. Our short-term oscillators corroborate somewhat my view. The RSI turned down and could fall back below 50 soon, while the MACD, already negative, shows signs that it could start topping near its zero line. Switching to the daily chart, I see that Cable remains well below the 80-day exponential moving average, which has started turning down. However, given that we have less than a week for the UK membership referendum and that the pair is highly sensitive to the results of the opinion polls, I prefer to stand flat with regards to the longer-term picture.
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