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The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August collapsed to a 6-year low yesterday, pushing back investors’ expectations for the next FOMC rate hike. The dollar came under renewed selling pressure immediately on the news and continued to trade even lower against its major peers in the following hours. This disappointment follows a similar nose-dive in the ISM manufacturing PMI, which showed that the sector contracted in August, and a slowdown in the US jobs growth. Even though these are just one month’s data, they significantly lower the odds for a potential Fed hike in September. We don’t completely rule out September as a candidate for action, but in our view the scale has now tipped overwhelmingly in favor of December. We assign the least probability to a November action, considering that the US presidential election almost coincides with the FOMC meeting and that period could be marked by heightened market uncertainty
