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Today we have both BOE and ECB rate decision which should bring a lot of volatility to the market. When it comes to raise in interest rates BOE appears to be more hawkish than any other Central Bank as the forward guidance target for the unemployment figures are forecast to be reached in early 2015. It's all about CB's forward guidance here and what message will be sent to the market.
Fundamentally speaking, UK is set to grow faster than any other Western economy. This year the economic data where very strong and supportive for GBP. The UK's GDP has shown the fastest growth for three years and rose by 0.8% according to the last figures.
Although BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged I'm expecting BOE's forward guidance to give some hints towards rate hike as earlier as 2015. In Figure 1 we have the recent GBP/USD price action and it can been seen that we are at current support and in accordance with my long term view, which can be found here: 2014 FX Market Outlook Cable (part 3) I'm expecting GBP/USD to start rallying.
- Figure 1 GBP/USD Daily chart. Technical Analysis.
On the other hand ECB seems to be more dovish than any other Central Bank. There is a big challenge to tame down high unemployment figures and deflationary risk pressure. The current strength in euro may be due to capital repatriation from Emerging Markets, but I'm expecting this to get over and I'm looking to see EUR/USD going down. Market expectation for today's meeting is for no rate cut but the there are high expectation for a move towards more dovish market policy Also let's not forget that ECB has also discuss the option of negative interest rates, which is very bearish for the EUR/USD.
- Figure 2. EUR/USD Chart. Technical Analysis.
In Figure 2 we can see that currently EUR/USD has formed a bearish flag pattern, is this a signal that we're heading downwards? That remains to be seen, however as we can see both technicals and fundamentals suggest that EUR/USD is going down.
Best Regards.
Daytrader21.
