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This week offers two major events, the ECB meeting and UK elections.
The ECB is expected to rebuff recent CPI strength, arguing that it has been due to a combination of factors. May’s CPI weakening to 1.4% and 0.9%, headline and core, respectively, gives sense to ECB officials recent reiterations that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels if needed.
Though, the ECB may signal intentions of tweaking asset purchases next year from the actual level of EUR60B. If not in this meeting, maybe in one of the following next.
The euro has risen above the 1.1250 level last week and it is currently at the highs of the year. The daily RSI is approaching the 70 level and further congestion may signal a possible consolidation ahead.
The sterling pound has been sold off against the US dollar as polls started to narrow in the previous week. Though, NFP data disappointed and sterling pound recovered almost knocking at the 1.29 door against the US dollar.
The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 38%, giving the Tories a 5 point lead. Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 9%, with UKIP on 4%. Votes for other parties stand at 7%.
GBP/USD seems to be capped by the 20-day SMA at 1.2915, which offered resistance during last week. Immediate support is seen at 1.2806, reinforced by the lower Bollinger band. Nervousness among investors will likely prompt the previous mentioned support level to be broken, with the next support lying at 1.2747, bolstered by the 55-day SMA. If the previous mentioned level fails, then a highway down is seen till the 100-day SMA at 1.2595.
The US 10-year yield fell 9 bp last week. If it fails to find support at current levels, the US dollar/yen may slide till the 110 level. A break of the previous mentioned level would lead the exchange rate till the 109.42 area, where the lower Bollinger band is located at.
The ECB is expected to rebuff recent CPI strength, arguing that it has been due to a combination of factors. May’s CPI weakening to 1.4% and 0.9%, headline and core, respectively, gives sense to ECB officials recent reiterations that interest rates will remain at present or lower levels if needed.
Though, the ECB may signal intentions of tweaking asset purchases next year from the actual level of EUR60B. If not in this meeting, maybe in one of the following next.
The euro has risen above the 1.1250 level last week and it is currently at the highs of the year. The daily RSI is approaching the 70 level and further congestion may signal a possible consolidation ahead.
The sterling pound has been sold off against the US dollar as polls started to narrow in the previous week. Though, NFP data disappointed and sterling pound recovered almost knocking at the 1.29 door against the US dollar.
The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 38%, giving the Tories a 5 point lead. Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 9%, with UKIP on 4%. Votes for other parties stand at 7%.
GBP/USD seems to be capped by the 20-day SMA at 1.2915, which offered resistance during last week. Immediate support is seen at 1.2806, reinforced by the lower Bollinger band. Nervousness among investors will likely prompt the previous mentioned support level to be broken, with the next support lying at 1.2747, bolstered by the 55-day SMA. If the previous mentioned level fails, then a highway down is seen till the 100-day SMA at 1.2595.
The US 10-year yield fell 9 bp last week. If it fails to find support at current levels, the US dollar/yen may slide till the 110 level. A break of the previous mentioned level would lead the exchange rate till the 109.42 area, where the lower Bollinger band is located at.
