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NZD/USD Bearish Flag (part 2)

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6885, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Retracement #Seasonality #Projection #Bearish Flag
This is a continuation post from 2 months ago forecast which has not yet reached the final target projected of the bearish flag formation posted on the weekly chart. NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbin…
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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 1: Due to the high volatility environment we have now retested the big resistance level of 0.7500. The seasonality pattern is working well so far as we should have expected some kind of traction and upside momentum for kiwi this month but by the end of the month we should see this pair trading lower.

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 2: This corrective move is already showing signs of exhaustion as on the weekly chart we have a bearish PB which is a reversal pattern. Once we manage to break and close below 0.7500 big round number we should expect the down trend to resume. Next week resistance should be at 0.7600 round number and left eye of the PB

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NZD/USD Bearish Flag

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7513, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Retracement #Projection #Bearish Flag
NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbing all the bids. Usually you measure the length of previous sell off and project that move to the downside in order to find the next leg target.
If we project the prev…
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Daytrader21 24 Jan.

Update 1: As expected the bearish flag broke to the downside and momentum is accelerating taking us below 0.7500 big round number. But I'm not expecting this move to be smooth and there is plenty of support all the way down to 0.7400 and 0.7300 where we can see a re-bounce back towards the big round number 0.7500

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Daytrader21 14 Feb.

Update 2: As expected the bearish flag has been working perfectly, however it seems I've been wrong on the speed of the move. Once we broke that pattern the momentum has started picking up to the downside and we broke key support and big round number 0.7500 which was also my target. Based on Elliot Wave we may see kiwi retracing all the way up and retesting the 0.7600 level which is the breakout candle of the bearish flag.

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Daytrader21 22 Feb.

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update we indeed continued to retrace further up. The wave sequence from 0.7170 low suggest we should see another marginal high at 1.7580 before to continue down again and complete a WXY type of retracement.

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Daytrader21 28 Feb.

Update 4: As expected we indeed had a new marginal high at 0.7580 and we had a strong rejection. For Monday we should expect the Friday's high to provide a great resistance zone and we can see kiwi resuming it's down trend. There is plenty of time to reach our target in the first hours of the new session.

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Daytrader21 2 Mar.

Update 5: We're now at support 0.7515 level(see Figure attached) right ahead of the big round number 0.7500 which should provide good support zone for the entire day, as I'm not expecting any breakout during today. Also to the upside we have another minor resistance level of 0.7540 which should not be broken. Usually kiwi only starts breaking either direction only after the New York session comes in, until that happens we should expect further consolidation. 

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