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EURo to consolidate in July

al_dcdemo Posted 19 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Neutral Fundamentals #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Breakaway Gap
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows in Q4 2016. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1…
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al_dcdemo 15 July

UPDATE 6: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Exciting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.145 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.745, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 8: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 9: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't reveal anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 10: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but probably not for too long.

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EURo to pull back after some further gains

al_dcdemo Posted 22 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Improved Fundamentals #Breakaway Gap
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows in Q4 2016. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1…
Read full story
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al_dcdemo 12 June

UPDATE 6: ECB acted as expected last week and removed phrase "or lower" from the line "interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The bank remains cautious as they lowered growth and inflation forecasts for the year. The market expected a little bit more hawkishness from them and subsequently sold off. Dip buyers have been quick to step in however and push the pair back above 1.12. 1.11 - 1.115 should hold if this rally is to continue. 1.13 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 7: Fed's FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 8: Euro traded to a new seven-month high last week after weak U.S. inflation and retail sales data. The spike was reversed few hours later on hawkish FOMC decision. PMI data at the end of the week will be closely watched by market participants. The pair has been trading sideways for about a month. December - May channel top, late May low and 1.11 big figure level combine to a strong support area, followed by 1.10 - 1.1050 (early May high, 50 DMA). 1.13 remains a formidable upside barrier.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 28 June

UPDATE 10: ECB president Mario Draghi yesterday said: "While there are still factors that are weighing on the path of inflation, at present they are mainly temporary factors that typically the central bank can look through". That's hawkish from him and Euro bulls needed no excuse to took the pair 150 pips higher by the end of the day. The pair finally broke above U.S. election high (1.13) and extended gains to the highest level in a year. Pre-Brexit high (1.1430) is the next target and then last year's high near 1.1615. Broken 1.13 level should now offer some decent support.

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